Locking in Bo will be costly
Whether the deal is long or short, Bo is going to rake it in
There haven’t been many Nikita Tryamkins on Jim Benning’s watch.
Generally, he’s had no issues keeping players he’s brought in, which is probably why Hockey Graphs, an analytics website, cited Benning ’s extension work an area of strength while placing him dead last this week in a metrics-based ranking of NHL general managers.
Veterans like Chris Tanev, Luca Sbisa, Brandon Sutter and Derek Dorsett were all locked up to multi-year deals while Ben Hutton, Markus Granlund and Sven Baertschi got tidy two-year bridge contracts.
The results have been mixed, but say this for Benning’s Canucks: Good or bad, there sure aren’t many drawn-out, contentious negotiations.
That could change this summer with a pair of complex situations. Both Erik Gudbranson, who the team paid a hefty price to bring in, and Bo Horvat, the presumed next captain, are restricted free agents, and there’s no obvious path in either situation.
A one-year deal for Gudbranson has merit, but he would then be set to become an unrestricted free agent in July 2018. That may not be viewed as ideal, because losing him for nothing is not going to be an enticing option.
For Horvat, the stakes are higher. He’s arguably the most important player in Vancouver’s rebuild structure, a centre who has made massive strides transitioning from a fourth-line pivot to the Canucks’ leading scorer.
But that transformation also means the price on a Horvat extension accelerated almost as significantly as his skating improved.
There are lots of reasons to go all in on Horvat. He treats the game with a great deal of respect and is willing to do anything and everything for his coach, and he relentlessly pursues improvement.
On the character side of the equation, Horvat checks every box, which doesn’t mean much if he can’t play. He can, and he may be better than anyone expected.
He’s not there yet defensively, but the 52 points he put up last season is already beyond what many thought his ceiling would be when he was drafted in 2013.
At 22 years old, he has the potential to better that total and sustain it over the next three to five years, putting his production at first-line level.
If you believe all of this is possible, then you believe Horvat is worth a six-year extension, which has become increasingly standard for top forwards coming off entrylevel deals. This, however, would be expensive, and not without risk.
The low end of Horvat’s comparables would put him in the US$4.5-million-a-year range. With Sutter’s deal averaging out at US$4.375 million a year, it would make no sense for Horvat’s camp to accept less. Sutter has one 40-point season in his career, and Horvat already has two.
The high end of a possible longterm Horvat extension is at least US$1 million per year more and there’s an argument to be made that Horvat can get it. His leverage saw a significant bump after his 52-point season.
This last option doesn’t have a ton of value for the Canucks, but Horvat can easily make the case after this season that he’s going to be the team’s unquestioned No. 1 line centre.
Back in the fall, Benning publicly said the Canucks wanted to reach a long-term deal with Horvat. But things change, and no one expected Horvat to put up more points than the Sedins.
It makes more sense now for the Canucks to be seeking a shorterterm deal. If Horvat is as good as he’s looked, they’d be happy to pay him when that deal’s up.
What is clear, however, is there’s no easy answer on this contract extension, but it’s an important one for the team with both Granlund and Baertschi needing new contracts of their own soon.