LEADERS’ CAMPAIGN STOPS REVEAL STRATEGY
Clark has taken the fight to the NDP while Horgan taking Greens seriously
Nearing the final week of a close and hard-fought election, the B.C. Liberals cleared a full day on the schedule for party leader Christy Clark to campaign in the southeastern corner of B.C.
Clark made three stops last Sunday on the swing through the constituency of Columbia River-Revelstoke, campaigning for B.C. Liberal challenger Doug Clovechok in a place that has gone solidly for the NDP through three elections over 12 years.
Clark finished up the day with a stop in Cranbrook in adjacent Kootenay East, held for the Liberals over the past 16 years by cabinet minister Bill Bennett.
He’s retiring. But considering Bennett won the seat with 63 per cent of the vote last time, he’s left his wouldbe successor, Tom Shypitka, well positioned to return the seat to the Liberal column on May 9.
So the main focus of Clark’s effort for the day was boosting the Liberal chances poaching Columbia River -Revelstoke away from the NDP. Her key pitch, delivered in Invermere at midday, was a call for British Columbians to rally behind her in the fight against the rising tide of protectionism in the U.S.
After a familiar recitation of the multiple threats to Canadian softwood and other exports by the administration of President Donald Trump, Clark took a shot at the local NDP candidate Gerry Taft for his flippant suggestion of a remedy: “Wait until Donald Trump is impeached.”
One factor giving hope to the Liberals in Columbia River-Revelstoke is the absence this time of a candidate for the Conservatives. Last election fielded a candidate who took almost 1,200 votes.
But Clovechok, who was Liberal candidate last time out, lost by 1,600 votes. That’s a huge margin for a governing party to overcome, but there was Clark on Sunday, campaigning to overcome it.
She’s done a lot of campaigning this year in ridings that were held by the Opposition when the house was dissolved for the election. As of Thursday, she’d hit a dozen and a half ridings on NDP turf, with particular focus on those in the North, the Interior and Vancouver Island.
Several were high on the list of seats that Clark would most like to add to the Liberal count. At the top of the list is Skeena, where Ellis Ross, a leader of the Haisla First Nation and a strong supporter of development of a liquefied natural gas industry, is running for the Liberals. New Democrat Robin Austin took the seat by just over 500 votes last time and he has retired.
Clark has also turned out to boost another First Nations leader, Dallas Smith, in his fight against incumbent New Democrat Claire Trevena in North Island. Her margin of victory last time was 2,000 votes.
But then there was no Green candidate; this time there is.
On Thursday, Clark campaigned in Cowichan Valley for candidate Steve Housser. He finished five points behind last time. But with a strong Green candidate and an NDP riding association damaged by a messy nomination battle, the Liberals figure they have a chance at coming out on top in a three-way fight this time.
Local concerns notwithstanding, the real significance is that Clark has spared so much time campaigning in NDP territory.
The campaign is only 28 days long and significant time was set aside for the debates (including prep time) and religious festivals (Easter, Vaisakhi).
Although Clark was fighting for re-election against a strong, determined and scornful opponent, she was confident enough to spend multiple days taking the fight to the NDP.
Granted, the Liberals may simply be overconfident. Perhaps the opinion sampling organization that served them so well last time has missed the signals coming from the electorate this time.
But the campaign schedule of NDP Leader John Horgan suggests the New Democrats may be picking up on some of the same trends as the Liberals.
Horgan has spent little time in the Interior and none in the North, suggesting he doesn’t expect to make up much of the ground he needs there.
He has spent a significant amount of time on Vancouver Island in ridings his party took last time, suggesting the NDP is threatened by the challenge from the upstart Green party.
But the bulk of his campaign has been concentrated in and around Metro Vancouver, where the New Democrats see the best chances of taking seats from the Liberals in Surrey, Vancouver, Burnaby, Maple Ridge and the much fought-over Delta North.
Horgan needs to wrench at least 10 seats away from the Liberals for a majority; more if the NDP loses any ground to the Greens or to the Liberals elsewhere in the province.
That’s why you see him making multiple visits to North Vancouver-Lonsdale, where cabinet minister Naomi Yamamoto won by 1,200 votes and five points last time. Thursday he stopped briefly in Richmond, solid for the Liberals through six elections and 25 years.
In short, based on where the New Democrats have concentrated their campaign, they don’t expect to make gains in the north and the Interior and they fear losing seats on Vancouver Island.
Thus to win the seat count on May 9, they’ll pretty much have to run the table in and around Metro Vancouver, winning all of the swing seats and maybe a few that are not even all that close.
Local concerns notwithstanding, the real significance is that Clark has spared so much time campaigning in NDP territory.