AND NOW, PROVINCE WAITS ON COURTENAY-COMOX
While NDP pads its lead in the riding, the popular vote narrows to a near-tie
As the day wore on and the final count of ballots proceeded, B.C.’s closest provincial election continued to tighten up.
On election night, the B.C. Liberals were ahead of the New Democrats by two in the seat count and a full point in the popular vote, enough for Premier Christy Clark to claim a dubious victory.
But at the end of counting Tuesday, the two main parties were almost tied, less than 3,000 votes separating them among almost two million cast.
The seat count continued to say cliffhanger as well: Liberals 43, New Democrats 41, Greens 3.
In comparison to that, the previous record for tight results in modern times
— the 1979 election, when the two main parties were separated at the finish line by 31,000 votes and five seats — resembled a landslide.
Plus as the counting ended for the day, one seat remained dramatically in play: Courtenay-Comox, where the NDP’s nine-vote lead on election night was increased to 13 after Monday’s counting.
Tuesday saw the lead trimmed to 12, then the Liberals pulled ahead by three and, as counting ended for the day, the New Democrats were reported back in the lead by 101 votes.
At the point where the two parties were within three votes of each other, my colleague Rob Shaw of The Vancouver Sun and I consulted the Election Act to see what would happen if the election gods, with their puckish sense of humour, served up a tie.
No casting vote for the returning officer here in B.C. Rather, a genuine tie — once certified by judicial recount — obliges the seat be declared vacant and a byelection called.
In that event, the province would be into the highest stakes byelection in history and a minimum four weeks of waiting before the seat count would be finalized for Election 2017 — but I digress. Also up in the air as the counting proceeded through the day was Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, where NDP incumbent Jodie Wickens was closing on vote-leading Joan Isaacs of the B.C. Liberals.
But when the final count was posted after 5 p.m., Isaacs had held on for an 87-vote win.
That left Courtenay Comox, where counting resumes today. If the Liberals were able to claw their way back into the lead, they would then have a bare-bones majority of 44 seats.
If the count continues to favour the NDP, the Liberals would be one short of a majority and the New Democrats would have a plausible shot at forming government if they could secure an alliance with the Greens.
In anticipation of that opportunity, eight activist groups gathered on the front steps of the legislature Tuesday to urge the formation of an NDP-Green partnership.
Listening attentively and then receiving a petition to that effect were MLAs-elect Carole James of the NDP and Sonia Furstenau of the Greens.
As both are members of their parties’ respective negotiating teams, one had to think their presence confirmed a budding romance between Greens and New Democrats.
Several members of the press gallery, taking a break from repeatedly refreshing the Elections B.C. website for updates on the vote count, turned out for the presentation as well.
But the main reason for attendance was the possibility we were getting a preview of the first speech from the throne of a Horgan-Weaver government.
Calls from the various groups ranged from increased funding for child care to a halt to construction of the hydroelectric dam at Site C on the Peace River.
If the New Democrats do manage to form a government with a helping hand from the Greens, the outcome would, in a roundabout way, confirm the rule of thumb about the NDP never forming government without a split among the centreright parties. The prospect of a centre-right split went largely unnoticed during Election 2017. The leaderless B.C. Conservatives fielded only 10 candidates, mostly in ridings where they were not a factor.
However, as the count was being finalized Tuesday, it was apparent the Conservatives may have influenced the outcome in two ridings and made a close call of a third.
In Richmond-Queensborough, the almost 700 votes taken by Conservative Kay Hale — who had previously run for office as a New Democrat — contributed to a close call for B.C. Liberal Jas Johal. He won by just 134 votes over New Democrat Aman Singh.
Conservative Trevor Hamilton took more than 900 votes in Maple Ridge-Mission. With the count not yet finalized, New Democrat Bob D’Eith led two-term Liberal incumbent Marc Dalton by fewer than 400 votes.
Then there was battleground Courtenay-Comox. In a riding where the Liberals briefly clung to a three-vote lead Tuesday, Conservative Leah Catherine McCulloch racked up more than 2,000 votes and counting.
Under fire from the Liberals for her upstart candidacy, she’s already laid claim to spoiler status.
“They think the Liberals would have won the riding if there hadn’t been a Conservative candidate on the ballot,” she told Mike Smyth of The Province last week. “They’re probably right, but they have only themselves to blame, not me.”
There’ll be plenty of blame to go around if the Liberals fail to hang onto a seat they rated as relatively secure at the outset of the campaign. But as the day ended Tuesday, they were still hoping to get back into the lead and preserve an outside shot at majority government.
As both are members of … negotiating teams, one had to think their presence confirmed a budding romance between Greens and New Democrats.