Calculating a Tanev deal’s merits
Canucks GM might get Stars’ pick for his top defenceman. What then?
Talk is cheap, but the asking price isn’t.
Vancouver Canucks general manager Jim Benning will inquire about trading for the thirdoverall selection in the 2017 National Hockey League draft. The Dallas Stars are seeking an impact right-shot defensive defenceman capable of logging as many as 24 minutes a night to part with the pick.
Chris Tanev checks all the desirable boxes, and that’s where it gets tricky.
If Benning wants to be bold, he could own the third and fifth picks when the opening round is conducted June 23 in Chicago. That could allow him to fill two pressing needs — a playmaking centre and power-play point man — but the Stars are expected to up the ante, and why wouldn’t they?
If you believe Tanev and the 55th overall pick secured from the Columbus Blue Jackets as compensation for the October 2015 hiring of coach John Tortorella is enough, think again. It’s not a stretch to suggest Stars GM Jim Nill would also want the 33rd-overall pick in that package.
At 27, Tanev provides a presence in the defensive zone and in the room, and teammates have raved about him on the world stage. There is also his salary cap-friendly annual hit of US$4.45 million for the next three seasons. Those attributes have caught the eye of several suitors, especially the Stars, who finished second-last in goals allowed per game this season and had the worst penalty kill.
Then again, the Stars could keep their pick or the Canucks could balk at parting with too many assets. But what if they did a deal? What if Benning and Nill find common ground and the Canucks take Finnish defenceman Miro Heiskanen third because he’s clearly a cut above Cale Makar and Timothy Liljegren? They could still land a centreman at fifth overall because scouts suggest there is little separation between Gabriel Valardi, Casey Mittelstadt and Cody Glass.
The biggest dilemma in all this is: How do you replace Tanev?
The expected return of unrestricted free agent Ryan Miller on a short contract signals a methodical rebuild because being competitive matters to the hockey operations department.
The 36-year-old Miller faced 40 or more shots on nine occasions this season, including three times in the final month. What would it be without Tanev — 50-shot barrages?
That’s why a bridge blue-liner would make sense. It would allow the Canucks to get a better longterm read on Erik Gudbranson, Ben Hutton and Philip Holm, and decide whether Andrey Pedan and Jordan Subban can play at this level and where Olli Juolevi is in his development.
The UFA market is clogged with older and expensive blue-liners who will also want term, but landing a projected UFA on an expiring contract for the second pairing — one who could come near Tanev’s 20:20 of average ice time — makes sense. It would help stabilize the back end after giving up the seventh-most goals and having the third-worst penalty kill.
It would also be prudent financially, considering available cap space. The Canucks have US$17.3 million available, but deals for Bo Horvat, Miller, Gudbranson and four other RFAs of the club’s choosing will probably eat up about US$16 million of annual space.
There will be wiggle room with a Vegas expansion-draft claim June 21. If it’s defenceman Luca Sbisa, that’s another US$3.6 million in additional cap space to pursue somebody in the US$3million-to-US$4-million range. However, it’s not that easy.
Thomas Hickey, 28, of the New York Islanders (US$2.2M, 17:31 average ice time) and Kevin Klein, 32, of the New York Rangers (US$2.9M, 17:38) might merit trade consideration on their expiring deals until you dig deeper.
Hickey was more effective as a winger than a blue-liner this season. The fourth-overall pick in 2007, he has teased with skating, hitting and shooting ability, but is at best a second-pairing defender.
Klein is a defensive defenceman who played just one game in the playoff series against the Montreal Canadiens this season because his skating has tailed off.
Filling that Tanev void would be difficult.
The biggest dilemma in all this is: How do you replace Tanev? … The UFA market is clogged with older and expensive blueliners who will also want term.