THE CAP SHRINKS CUP WINDOWS
Edmonton needs to win a title while they can still pay their stars a relative pittance
Let the countdown begin.
The Edmonton Oilers need to win a Stanley Cup, and they need to win it now.
Connor McDavid is expected to sign an eight-year contract worth US$108 million that would kick in after next season, according to several reports. With Leon Draisaitl also expected to receive a significant raise this summer, the window might never be as open as it is today to win a championship.
That’s not to say the window will close after this year — when you have arguably the best player in the world on your roster, you’re always a contender — but it will become a lot more difficult to build a supporting cast when your best player is earning US$13.25 million per year.
Just ask Alex Ovechkin, whose US$9.5-million cap hit has made it difficult for the Capitals to ice a well-rounded roster.
That’s not to say McDavid isn’t worth the money or that he should take a Martin Brodeur-type deal for the good of the team after winning the Art Ross and Hart Trophy this year. He’s the best player in the world and, very soon, he will be paid like it — but that does come at a cost.
The Oilers already might be weaker than they were a year ago, having traded Jordan Eberle (20 goals and 51 points) to the New York Islanders for Ryan Strome (13 goals and 30 points) in a costcutting move that saved the team US$3.5 million per year. Despite that trade, they may still have US$55 million tied up long-term in nine players (forwards Milan Lucic and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, defencemen Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson and Kris Russell, and goalie Cam Talbot), assuming McDavid is earning US$13.25 million and Draisaitl signs for US$8 million per year.
That doesn’t leave Edmonton with much room under the cap — it’s set at US$75 million for next season — for the rest of its roster, which is why they need to take advantage of having McDavid on an entry-level contract.
To win a Stanley Cup, you not only need some of the best players in the league, you need some of the most underpaid players in the league.
When the Pittsburgh Penguins made the Cup final in 2008, Sidney Crosby had a cap hit of US$850,000. Crosby was earning US$8.7 million when they won it all a year later, but Evgeni Malkin, who was playoff MVP, was still on his entry-level contract (as were Jordan Staal and Kris Letang).
It’s also worth noting that after Malkin was bumped up to US$8.7 million — and the team was forced to part ways with Staal and Sergei Gonchar — Pittsburgh didn’t reach the final again until six years later. By then, of course, goalie Matt Murray was on an entry-level contract. This year, when the team repeated as Cup champs, Jake Guentzel led the entire playoffs in goals while earning US$734,167.
It’s a formula that shouldn’t be surprising to a Blackhawks fan. When Chicago won the Stanley Cup in 2010, both Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane were on entrylevel contracts, while Duncan Keith was earning US$1.475 million. Somehow, the Blackhawks have made it work by ditching non-core players like Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd and finding cheaper replacements like Brandon Saad, who made entrylevel money during Cup wins in 2013 and 2015.
That will be the challenge for the Oilers in the coming years, as 2016 fourth-overall pick Jesse Puljujarvi and defenceman Darnell Nurse inch closer to restricted free agency. Until then, the clock is ticking for them to take advantage of another season when the best player in the world is being paid like a fourth-line forward.
It’s not just Edmonton that is in this wonderful predicament. After the Toronto Maple Leafs qualified for the playoffs with a roster full of rookies, it might be easy for management to sit back and relax and enjoy the what should be the beginning of something special. After all, in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, the team has arguably the best young core group of forwards in the NHL.
But kids grow up fast. Nylander, who tied for third on the team in scoring as a rookie, becomes a restricted free agent after this season. In two short years, Calder Trophy winner Matthews, who led all rookies with 40 goals, and Marner, who tied Nylander with 61 points, will also be looking at McDavidand Draisaitl-type raises.
Good luck trying to pay them all and also finding a top-pairing defenceman to play with Morgan Rielly — or better yet, finding adequate replacements for James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak and Leo Komarov, who become UFAs in 2018.
Toronto cannot afford to take a step back this year. If anything, the Leafs need to join the Oilers in contending for a Cup right now, while the team is structured in a way in which the best players are also their cheapest.
After all, the window may never be as wide open as it is today.