CARBON TAX JET LAG: IVISON,
Timing bad as pipelines’ future in question
As he traipses round the world collecting new fans and socks, Justin Trudeau might reflect that things are going pretty well.
When viewed from 35,000 feet above the issues, the Prime Minister is presiding over a new gilded age — a Reputation Institute study just named Canada number one in its index of most reputed countries, while an Ipsos MORI poll ranked it as the most positive influence on world affairs.
But on the ground, the reality is more ambiguous. The Liberal government has invested great political capital in efforts to build a panCanadian consensus when it comes to carbon taxes and pipelines.
Polling from fall last year suggested it might be possible to carry a majority of support in every region of the country, if a national carbon pricing plan that encouraged a shift toward greater use of clean energy were accompanied by a pipeline to get oil and gas to new markets.
The plan linking the introduction of carbon taxes with pipeline approval was a winner, gaining the support of three out of four Canadians, with majorities in every region, according to the survey by Abacus Data.
Since then, just about everything that could have gone wrong with Trudeau’s grand bargain has done so — carbon enthusiast Donald Trump was elected U.S. president; an anti-pipeline coalition of New Democrats and Greens is set to take power in B.C. and oppose Ottawa’s approval of the Trans Mountain pipeline; and now, a new poll suggests support for federal carbon-pricing has cooled as the Liberals’ plan moves from rhetoric to reality.
The new study by the Angus Reid Institute suggests support for a national carbon tax has fallen to 44 per cent from 52 per cent last November, and 56 per cent two years ago.
Canadians are concerned their industries may be hindered after Trump pulled out of the Paris Agreement: 55 per cent believe Canada should hold off on carbon pricing to avoid being placed at a competitive disadvantage.
The Liberals unveiled their mandatory nationwide carbon price for provinces last October, which called for a minimum tax of $10 per tonne in 2018, rising to $50 per tonne by 2022 — an increase that would add around $0.11 to a litre of gas.
At least half the population in every region outside Quebec told Angus Reid it is opposed to Ottawa setting the price for provinces that fail to create their own plan.
Opposition is strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan, unsurprisingly, but is significant in the Maritimes, Ontario, Manitoba and B.C.
The government’s hope remains that the construction of a pipeline might weaken resistance to carbon pricing by accommodating both environmental and economic concerns.
But that winning coalition is falling apart in British Columbia, where two parties that campaigned against the expansion of the Kinder Morgan pipeline are about to take power.
Trudeau has said that regardless of B.C.’s change in government he stands by the National Energy Board’s approval of Trans Mountain. Natural resources minister Jim Carr said the federal government will be patient and wait for the process in B.C. to work itself out.
The hope among federal Liberals is that NDP premier-designate John Horgan will be pressured into silence on the file by unions who quite like the idea of pipeline construction jobs. But the longevity of an NDP government is going to rely on Green Party support, which will be contingent on opposition to Trans Mountain.
These are heady days for the prime minister on the world stage. He has an audience with the Queen in Edinburgh Wednesday, before heading off to save the world at the G20 later in the week.
Yet closer to home, the route to consensus on energy and the environment is in danger of being a road not taken.