REITs seen as riskier bets in Canada
Rising rates a key factor
Real estate investment trusts aren’t to be avoided as interest rates rise — except in Canada, where lower cash-flow growth and higher leverage make them riskier bets, according to the head of securities at a $6.5-billion real estate fund.
“If you look at the empirical evidence, REITs actually outperform in a rising-rate environment,” said Corrado Russo, global head of securities at Timbercreek Asset Management Inc. “They tend to do better both on a relative and on an absolute basis.”
Toronto-based Timbercreek analyzed the performance of U.S. REITs over the past nine rate-hike cycles by the Federal Reserve and found that they rose in eight of those nine periods.
“It’s counter to perception, but real estate is much more correlated to a strong economy than it is inversely correlated to interest rates,” said Russo, who manages $1.2 billion of public securities.
This is less true in Canada, where REITs tend to have longer-term leases and less tenant turnover, meaning fewer opportunities for landlords to raise rents.
This results in steady cash flow and higher leverage, creating bond-like securities more sensitive to interest rates than global counterparts, he said.
Some of this divergent performance is playing out this year as the Fed and Bank of Canada raise borrowing costs. The biggest ETF tracking Canadian REITs, the iShares S&P/ TSX Capped REIT Index ETF, is down one per cent. By comparison, its U.S. and global counterparts are up 1.7 per cent and 2.6 per cent, respectively.
“In an income environment, they outperform; when people want growth, they underperform. And in a rising rate environment, people want growth,” Russo said. “If you want to protect against interest rate rises in Canada, you should be going outside of Canada to get your REIT exposure.”
Russo recommends U.S. industrial and data-centre REITs, German office REITs and exposure to undervalued Hong Kong REITs.
There are also opportunities in Canada if you know where to look.
“If we’re going to invest in Canada, it’s got to exhibit either very attractive growth in cash flow or underlying net asset value, or it’s got to give me a good valuation,” Russo said. “It’s where do we see management teams that have the ability to add value.”