On North Korea, negotiation is the only way forward

Like it or not, we have little choice, Harry Sterling writes.

North Korea’s recent launch of yet another missile over Japanese territory once again predictably created a near-crisis situation in the United States, South Korea and Japan.

The latest missile test, coming on the heels of North Korea’s recent test of a more advanced nuclear explosion, obviously was intended by Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s young leader, to emphasize he wasn’t intimidated by threats to his regime by other countries, especially the United States, or even United Nations trade and economic sanctions.

However, these recent actions caused U.S. President Donald Trump to unleash yet another public threat implying Kim would not remain in power much longer.

To ensure Kim was under no illusions about the seriousness of Trump’s preparedness to “destroy” North Korea, Trump had several of the most advanced American fighter aircraft fly ominously close to North Korean territory.

Trump’s threatening action not only had the desired effect, it also resulted in North Korea’s United Nations representative declaring Trump’s bellicose statements and actions were direct threats to North Korea’s sovereign territory and meant the United States was declaring war on North Korea.

Where all this will lead is unclear, especially since Trump and Kim are both unpredictable and quite capable of carrying out rash and dangerous actions.

Although Canadians — far removed from the endless threats exchanged between North Korea’s dubious leader and retaliatory doomsday threats by Trump — might regard the constant tension with Pyongyang primarily confined to East Asia, that would be a mistake.

What happens in East Asia no longer is only of peripheral interest to Canada, especially British Columbia. Canada’s active role in promoting the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is a clear indication of the high priority given to increasing relations with East Asia.

The dynamic East Asia region is now a key area for Canada in expanding global trade and investment. Much of the two-way trade between Canada and East Asia is channelled through ports like Vancouver and now Prince Rupert’s expanded container facilities. Tension and conflict within East Asia could damage Canada’s increasing efforts to expand trade and economic relations there.

Neither Kim nor Trump has helped matters with their bellicose threats.

Neither Kim nor Trump has helped matters with their bellicose threats. However, should the current tension get out of control, the result could be catastrophic.

Were Trump to use military action against North Korea, he would be ensuring that North Korea, with hundreds of thousands of troops half an hour away from South Korea’s capital of Seoul, would respond immediately. North Korea’s long-range missiles can reach Japan within minutes. Any U.S. military attack would endanger 30,000 American military personnel in South Korea.

Such horrific prospects would make any use of force by Trump unthinkable. Several American generals have made it clear that launching any U.S. military actions against North Korea would be a disaster. (North Korea’s ostensible ally, Chinese leader Xi Jinping, reportedly said his country would only assist North Korea if it were the first to be attacked.)

Although neither Kim nor Trump has publicly stated support for negotiations to end the tension, there is little other choice. One way or another, Pyongyang — joined by Japan, China and South Korea, plus other countries, possibly including Russia — should enter talks on finding a workable agreement. However, North Korea would want some form of non-aggression commitment backed by the U.S., South Korea and Japan, plus economic and other aid.

There’s growing belief the U.S. and others might have to contemplate the reality that North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs will somehow have to eventually be accepted with some kind of restraints as unavoidable realities. While many would question such a deal with North Korea, getting back to the negotiating table is still preferable to letting the tension with North Korea ultimately deteriorate further into actual hostilities.