Astros take care of the ultimate analytic
They drew up their own plan and stuck to it. No one’s doubting now, Rob Longley writes.
They were ridiculed as one of the worst franchises in baseball, making 100-loss seasons seem routine.
And then when they tried to fix it, the Houston Astros were busted in some quarters of conventional baseball management for going about it the wrong way with a revolutionary infrastructure that took analytics to a new stratosphere.
Now look who’s going to the World Series.
Under the stewardship of general manager Jeff Luhnow, the Astros ignored the criticism and steadfastly built the versatile group that on Sunday boarded a charter for Los Angeles to face the Los Angeles Dodgers when the Fall Classic starts Tuesday.
“We’re a baseball team first,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said following Saturday’s 4-0 win over the New York Yankees in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series, giving the Astros their first AL pennant. “We’re pretty book smart, but that’s not a bad thing.
“(Luhnow) and the group in the front office, they’re as progressive as anybody in the game. Maybe five years ago that was seen as different — now it’s seen as something to copy. You either evolve with it or you become a dinosaur in this game.”
The Astros didn’t get to the World Series for just the second time in franchise history — they were National League champions in 2005 — without pain and suffering.
Luhnow was at the helm of that 107-loss season in 2012, a second consecutive season in which they hit the century club for defeats and a rock-bottom campaign if there ever was one.
Hired in December 2011, he took stock of the franchise and went to work bridging his background as an engineer and management consultant with the baseball savvy of those around him.
He essentially wiped out the entire front office in 2012 — sound familiar, Toronto Blue Jays observers? — and replaced them with people Luhnow believed would be equally innovative and buy into what he was trying to do.
Then the Astros started building through the draft. The 2012 edition brought Carlos Correa in the first round and later Lance McCullers Jr., two key figures on the roster that will face the Dodgers.
In 2014, the progressive-thinking Hinch was hired as manager, and things really started to move in a positive direction.
There was a playoff appearance in 2015, a step back in 2016 and now this: a 101-win that allowed the Astros to win the AL West by 21 games followed by playoff victories over the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS and then the Yankees.
Eventually the questions about the Astros’ methodology relented as the results told their own story. And as Hinch rightfully points out, they didn’t win the AL pennant on algorithms and spreadsheets alone.
Case in point No. 1: Even though Jose Altuve had lived through the bad times of those two 100-loss seasons, there was recognition that he had the type of personality that could be central to a winning rebuild.
Case in point No. 2: When it became clear they had a shot at winning it all this year, starter Justin Verlander was acquired from the Detroit Tigers with seconds to spare at August’s trade deadline. Verlander was named the MVP of the ALCS for his two stellar winning outings while Altuve’s bat was all over each of the four victories over the Yankees.
The marriage of analytics and players seems to be working well for a team that is defined by its versatility. In the ALCS, stellar defence and aggressive baserunning complemented outstanding excellent pitching that allowed the Astros to survive a brief spell of iciness at the plate.
“For us, we’re people and we care about people,” Hinch said. “We’ve certainly been at the front line of a lot of things that are progressive and it’s gotten us to a really good place.
“We still have instincts. We still rely on the chemistry that’s built in the clubhouse. We went and got veterans. We usually do the opposite of what the rest of the industry is doing to continue to move and try to find a competitive advantage, but that desire to win, that old school traditional desire to win, is as big in this building as it is in any building in the big leagues.”
Verlander quickly recognized that and bought into what the Astros were about. He knew they were serious contenders, which was a big reason why he waived his no-trade clause.
“(Luhnow’s) fingerprints are all over this team,” Verlander said. “I think he’s done a fantastic job building an organization from the ground up. I think he got a lot of flak early on here with the Astros. It wasn’t conventional thinking.
“But the proof is in the pudding. Here we are.”