STOP CALLING KERSHAW A PLAYOFF CHOKER; HE ISN’T
Tired narrative surrounding Dodgers’ dominant starting pitcher is bunkum
On the eve of the Super Bowl a few years back, I wrote a column on Peyton Manning, making the case that his career should not be defined by wins and losses in the last game of the year. It was wellargued, with supporting evidence provided: Peyton Manning was good, no matter what happened on Sunday. (Dusts hands.)
A day later, he fumbled the opening snap and threw a killer first-half interception and the Broncos lost 43-8.
So, anyway, Clayton Kershaw. The Los Angeles Dodgers left-hander is arguably the best starting pitcher of his generation, and he is also having a hard time shaking the label that he is a playoff choker. Kershaw is Baseball Peyton. As he is about to start his first World Series game, this will inevitably be cast as a chance to cement his biggame legacy, to slay the playoff demons, or whatever other cliché will be used a hundred times between now and Tuesday night.
I am here to tell you all that is bunkum.
It is true Kershaw’s post-season numbers do not match his regular-season performances. But a significant part of the reason for that is his regularseason numbers are the stuff of wizardry.
Kershaw, 29, led the National League in ERA (2.31), ERA+ (180) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (6.73), and all of those numbers were significantly worse than last season, when an injury cost him several starts. In 2016, he issued 11 walks in 149 innings and struck out 172 batters. Clayton Kershaw is insane.
But Kershaw is just 6-7 in the playoffs over his career, which has led to the annual rite where various analysts wonder if he is not a Big Game Pitcher. This idea has become so baked in that even good post-season performances are diminished because they are not overwhelming enough. The narrative, so often repeated, is Kershaw can’t handle playoff pressure, and that it has only got worse with every playoff run that ends in disappointment.
The Playoff Choker construct is one of the most reliable in the hot-take business, next to Player Who is Having Too Much Fun and Foreign-Born Athlete Who Doesn’t Want it Enough. But the thing about claiming Kershaw can’t handle pressure is it sidesteps all the times in which he has handled it just fine.
Last season, after some wobbly starts against Washington in the National League Division Series — Playoff Choker! — Kershaw was called in from the bullpen, on almost one day’s rest, to preserve a one-run lead. Closer Kenley Jansen had already thrown two innings and it is fair to say manager Dave Roberts was desperate. Kershaw came in with one out and runners on first and second in the bottom of the ninth and the crowd in Washington going bonkers. Short of having the bases loaded, there could not have been a more uncomfortable point at which to insert a starting pitcher into the game. Especially one who, ahem, struggles in the playoffs. Except: pop up, strikeout, game over.
In the ensuing NLCS, Kershaw threw seven innings of shutout ball against Chicago in Game 2, with the Dodgers having already dropped Game 1. He got the win, and those two appearances seemed like fairly definitive proof that, whatever had happened in Kershaw’s playoff starts over the years, it could not be said that he couldn’t pitch like himself in the post-season. He had just done that. Except then he gave up a couple of home runs in Game 6 of that series, took the loss, and everyone was back to considering his lack of nerve and/or heart.
In this playoff run, Kershaw gave up four solo home runs (but got the win) against Arizona in the NLDS, gave up a two-run homer but took a no-decision to open the NLCS against Chicago, then beat the Cubs with six innings in which he gave up just one run, in the game that put the Dodgers back in the World Series. I guess, maybe, he has heart again?
There are different theories for why a regular-season maestro like Kershaw might struggle at times to be as dominating in the playoffs. Better opposition, a tired arm, cold October weather, all of it could play a part. His managers have also been known to leave him in a game when a lesser starter would have been yanked at the first sign of trouble.
But the most likely explanation is also the boring one: sometimes good players have bad games.
Kershaw gave up four runs in four-plus innings against the Cubs in late May, and he gave up six runs in seven innings against the Mets in mid-June. Those were bad performances, especially measured against his usual brilliance, and no one would argue they were a result of the pressure. You know, the bright lights and grand stage of … a Monday night game in late spring.
Bad starts can happen. For Kershaw, it’s just that some of them have been in October.
The Playoff Choker construct is one of the most reliable in the hot-take business, next to Player Who is Having Too Much Fun and Foreign-Born Athlete Who Doesn’t Want it Enough.