BREAKING BREXIT
LONDON AND BRUSSELS CAME WITHIN A WHISKER OF A BREAKTHROUGH ON BREXIT MONDAY, BUT AFTER A DAY OF DRAMATIC TWISTS A TENTATIVE DEAL WAS DERAILED
THE IRISH PROBLEM
British Prime Minister Theresa May ignited a storm when she attempted a Brexit concession to the European Union — allowing Northern Ireland to remain part of the EU. The Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party — which is propping up May’s government — signalled they would not support such a concession. In a sign of the sway the DUP holds over the British Premier, May broke away from her key lunch meeting with European Commission president JeanClaude Juncker on Monday to call DUP leader Arlene Foster, in an effort to avert a potential mutiny that would bring down the government. (Lunch was a sumptuous three course meal of roasted scallops on a butternut cream, followed by turbot in a crust of herbs and Tarte Tatin with cinnamon-scented ice cream.)
A CAN OF WORMS
May’s openness to allow Northern Ireland to continue abiding by the bloc’s rules and standards after the U.K. leaves appeared to open a Pandora’s Box of constitutional woes, as Scotland’s first minister and then London’s mayor — both of whom opposed Brexit — suggested that they too could benefit from such a deal. “If one part of U.K. can retain regulatory alignment with EU and effectively stay in the single market (which is the right solution for Northern Ireland) there is surely no good practical reason why others can’t,” Scotland’s Nicola Sturgeon tweeted. London Mayor Sadiq Khan followed suit minutes later. “Huge ramifications for London if Theresa May has conceded that it’s possible for part of the U.K. to remain within the single market & customs union after Brexit,” Khan said in a tweet. “Londoners overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and a similar deal here could protect tens of thousands of jobs.” Later, Wales joined in. Welsh First Minister Carwyn Jones tweeted “We cannot allow different parts of the U.K. to be more favourably treated than others. If one part of the U.K. is granted continued participation in the Single Market & Customs Union, then we fully expect to be made the same offer.”
BORDER LINES
Another major sticking point is the invisible border between Northern Ireland and the Irish Republic. The “soft border” exists because both Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K., and the Republic of Ireland are members of the EU’s single market and customs union. When the U.K. leaves the EU, Northern Ireland goes with it. Brexit risks reviving a border between the two that is associated with violence and religious hatred. Any new border will need to be policed in some way or other — to check for everything from chlorinated chicken or products made with cheap steel. Manned or even electronic checks would unravel the Good Friday Agreement which brought peace to the troubled island. The agreement relied on the physical north-south border disappearing. This enabled Nationalists to feel part of Ireland even though Northern Ireland remained a part of the United Kingdom. This central ambiguity is destroyed by Brexit.
HIGH HOPES
Even with Monday’s setbacks,
the hope is still for a midDecember summit of EU leaders to conclude that Britain has achieved “sufficient progress” in this first phase of talks so that trade negotiations can start and the transition arrangement that business wants can be put in place. It’s 17 months since the referendum and Britain leaves the bloc in 15 months, with or without a deal.