Next party leader must project new Vision, experts say
High-profile politicians expected to step up as mayoral candidates
Political scientists and insiders say it’s too early to know who Vision Vancouver will run for mayor in the fall, but they expect a fierce battle with world-class candidates.
It’s unclear which of the party’s councillors may try to replace Mayor Gregor Robertson on the ballot: Raymond Louie said Wednesday he hopes to keep his council seat, but is unsure whether he’ll run for mayor.
Andrea Reimer said she will not seek re-election nor the mayorship. Tim Stevenson and Heather Deal didn’t reply to interview requests, while Kerry Jang is out of town.
Gordon Price, a political scientist and former director of Simon Fraser University’s city program, said he doesn’t know who Vision will run, but expects the mayoral race to attract candidates from senior levels of government.
“It would certainly be an opportunity for someone who has a sufficient degree of charisma — an overused word, but I think appropriate here,” he said.
“Can you get people’s attention in a highly fragmented world in order to establish an identity for the party that people will park their vote with?”
Price, an NPA councillor from 1986-2002, said when the NPA’s Hector Bremner won a council seat in the October byelection — and was trailed by independent Jean Swanson and the Green party’s Pete Fry, with Vision far behind — the electorate demonstrated it was willing to “entertain and understand substantial policy ideas,” particularly those related to housing.
With Robertson leaving, “all parties are now going to be confronted with a kind of existential change in Vancouver,” he said. He believes Vision recognizes its “best-by date” has come and gone.
“You just accumulate this baggage and no matter whether you have a good record, all your people are going to see are the stains or the inadequacies,” he said.
SFU political scientist David Moscrop said he’d long considered Vision councillors Reimer and Geoff Meggs to be the top contenders among its councillors. However, with Reimer not running and Meggs taking a position as Premier John Horgan’s chief of staff last year, that’s no longer the case.
“Of course, 10 months is a long time in politics,” Moscrop said. “Things could change.”
He also expects the race to attract federal and provincial politicians, along with high-profile businesspeople.
“Especially since not only is this a high-profile city — an important domestic and global city — cities are becoming increasingly important, where more and more people live,” he said. “They’re going to play a huge role in housing, transportation, climate change — even health.”
Moscrop believes Vision can survive without Robertson, buoyed by incumbency and in spite of its “battle scars” and the electorate’s frustration with other issues that “may or may not have been its fault.”
Max Cameron, a political scientist at the University of B.C., is also unsure who will run. He’ll watch closely how expected new financing limits will affect Vision’s campaign next election, given Robertson’s close ties with affluent developers and supporters. Vision raised $2.9 million for the 2014 election, including $1.92 million from corporations and more than $360,000 from unions.
“With him (Robertson) out of the picture and the new rules, it is going to be a whole different ball game,” Cameron said.
“It will mean a different kind of campaign. There will have to be … more of an effort to raise funds from smaller donors and, of course, Vision has, presumably, a machine that can do that.”
Joel Solomon, president of Renewal Partners, a public relations firm that was Vision’s top donor for the 2008 election, expects a struggle to replace Robertson. But with the party drawing youth into its ranks, Solomon believes there will be some “extraordinary,” world-class candidates.
“It’s too early to tell, but I’m very confident about the future of progressive politics in Vancouver and of Vision,” he said.
“I think that the opportunity to be the next mayor of Vancouver is going to attract some very interesting candidates in a very, probably, competitive race.”
It would certainly be an opportunity for someone who has a sufficient degree of charisma.