Metro Vancouver could see massive turnover of mayors

At least half of Metro Vancouver’s 21 mayoral seats could be vacant going into this fall’s municipal election, according to many of the region’s mayors.

“It’s probably going to be one of the largest turnovers of mayors this region has ever seen,” New Westminster Mayor Jonathan Cote said. “That’ll be a really interesting dynamic.”

With eight months to go before the Oct. 20 election — and just under seven before the nomination period begins — six Metro Vancouver mayors have already announced they will step down or have indicated previously this is their final term: Gregor Robertson (Vancouver), Greg Moore (Port Coquitlam), Ted Schaffer (City of Langley), Nicole Read (Maple Ridge), Wayne Baldwin (White Rock) and Lois Jackson (Delta).

Many more mayors, from Coquitlam to the district of North Vancouver, are on the fence, while some have confirmed their intentions.

Burnaby Mayor Derek Corrigan, who described himself as “one of the fools that keeps coming back again and again and again,” said he’ll be running for a sixth term in October.

He said he has some big issues he’d like to see through — including the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion, to which the city is opposed — and he’s comfortable in the position.

Corrigan is one of the region’s longest serving mayors and he estimates, based on the conversations he’s had, that half of the region’s mayors won’t run for re-election.

“Come October, I think we’ll see more change than we’ve seen in a lot of years,” he said.

“There’s going to be a kind of a leadership deficit that’s going to go on while some new mayors get their bearings.”

In the past 30 years of elections, there have been few occasions where the number of Metro Vancouver-area mayors leaving has come close to the number who have already announced for 2018.

In 1987, six mayoral seats were up for grabs in Langley township, Surrey, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Delta and Lions Bay. A seventh seat was available in Anmore, which held its first municipal election that year. Five mayors decided not to run in 1993 and 2011.

“This sounds unprecedented, to have that many at the same time,” said Gordon Price, a fellow at the Simon Fraser University Centre for Dialogue and a former Vancouver city councillor.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if it would be very tough to find any time you’d have 50 per cent turnover — maybe more — so there’s something going down.”

There is a multitude of reasons why a mayor would decide against running for another term.

“I think every mayor will have their individual and very personal reasons,” said Cote, who will run for a second term in October.

“It’s a busy, busy job and I think after people have done it for a period of time they often get burned out and they look for a change,” Corrigan said.

Incivility and criticism have become more constant in the internet age. “You get criticized for a lot of things that you have to do as part of your job — it’s not an easy thing to do,” Corrigan said.

The lengthening of municipal terms from three to four years, which began with the 2014 election, is also a factor.

“Everything has to be right because you’re making a four-year commitment,” said Richmond Mayor Malcolm Brodie, who intends to run for a sixth term. “It does make a noticeable difference.”

Price posited that a generational shift is happening. “It’s just the younger generation always wins by default,” he said. “Eventually they prevail simply because they last out the old boys — and in most cases it literally is the old boys.”