DIVINING THE OSCARS
A primer for poolies ahead of the gala
BAHR
Will win: No controversy, timely messages and a dash of fantasy, The Shape of Water seems to be the safe — if a little boring — front-runner.
Should win: Aside from Dunkirk, Lady Bird is the movie I’d watch repeatedly. It’s such a perfect slice-of-life film that will be around long after this awards season comes to an end. The best picture category gets a bad reputation for how often the award has gone to something that fades from memory in a few years. That wouldn’t happen with Lady Bird.
COYLE
Will win: There are five movies with a legitimate shot to win, which makes this year’s call more difficult than usual. I’m going to say Jordan Peele’s cultural sensation Get Out wins because it has two crucial things going for it: the all-important SAG ensemble nomination and a good shot at a highly predictive screenplay award. That, and it re-energized genre filmmaking.
Should win: I’d be thrilled if Dunkirk, Get Out, Lady Bird or Phantom Thread won, but Call Me by Your Name stood apart for me. It’s a movie that life just flows through.
BAHR
Will win: This is McDormand’s year, plain and simple.
Should win: It’s an extremely tough category, not only because the performances are so good, but they’re good in different ways. Still, it was Robbie who stretched herself as the defiant and unapologetic Tonya Harding. That shot of Robbie smearing on her stage blush while she tries to smile through the rising tears? It’s a classic.
COYLE
Will win: McDormand is a virtual lock.
Should win: Three Billboards wouldn’t exist without McDormand, who towers over the film. And Streep gave one of her most subtle performances in The Post. But most deserving is Ronan, who’s perpetually playing a jumble of emotions at once.
BAHR
Will win: Oldman has won most of the season’s major awards and there’s no reason he wouldn’t continue the streak, much to the chagrin of the internet’s darling, Chalamet, who will get another shot at this award.
Should win: There have been so many lame “Oscar-baity” biopics that it almost diminishes his achievement, but Oldman’s transformation into Winston Churchill is something they should teach in acting (and makeup) classes forever.
COYLE
Will win: Oldman has this one in the bag.
Should win: I wouldn’t begrudge Oldman, an actor’s actor for decades, his moment in the sun. But I’ll say Day-Lewis, who is simply the best there is.
BAHR
Will win: Janney, who is excellent as the caustic mother LaVona in I, Tonya. Should Win: Manville stole the show as the steadfast Cyril, sometimes terrifying, often funny and without whom Phantom Thread would have come crashing to the ground.
COYLE
Will win: Janney, a riot in I, Tonya, is the favourite.
Should win: Nothing could ever be wrong with the fantastic Janney winning an award. But I’d vote for Metcalf. Her character in Lady Bird is one of the finest working mothers ever seen in movies.
BAHR
Will win: Rockwell went big in Three Billboards as the racist cop who decides to (maybe) start rethinking his ways. He’s on a winning streak.
Should win: It’s Dafoe who gives The Florida Project its heart. He’s the one person who even takes notice of the residents of that low-rent motel outside Orlando, Fla. Dafoe makes every moment he’s in memorable.
COYLE
Will win: Rockwell is the favourite, but I smell an upset. I think Dafoe will win his first Oscar. Should win: This category is awash in terrific character actors. Wouldn’t it be great to see Jenkins win? Would anyone not cheer seeing Harrelson at the podium? But Dafoe’s low-rent father-figure will go down as an iconic performance.
BAHR
Will win: “In love with love and movies,” del Toro is the likely pick. Also, The Shape of Water could only have been made by him.
Should win: Nolan really should be getting more awards for his achievement with Dunkirk. Perhaps it came out too early, or maybe the film didn’t work as well in screener format as it did on the big screen. Whatever the reason, Nolan still made a masterpiece of suspense.
COYLE
Will win: Del Toro seems to have this locked up. With a win, he’ll join his friends and Mexican countrymen Alejandro Iñárritu and Alfonso Cuarón. The Three Amigos will have won four of the last five best director awards. Should win: The filmmakers in this group are impossible to compare: all of the movies are so singular to the director. I don’t like choosing, but Nolan’s feat in Dunkirk is a majestic creation of sight and sound.