Expert says only courts can settle dispute
To avoid further escalation in the fight over the $7.4-billion Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion, Ottawa and Alberta could join a B.C.-led court test of the province’s ability to restrict bitumen shipments, according to political scientists in B.C.
Political scientist Max Cameron, of the University of B.C., says no magical resolution should be expected from the Sunday meeting of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, B.C. Premier John Horgan and Alberta Premier Rachel Notley.
“I do think there is a potential path forward, which would be through the courts,” said Cameron, director of the university’s Centre for the Study of Democratic Institutions.
Whether Ottawa or Alberta would even consider joining a reference case is a big question, as they have already rejected an invitation from B.C. to do so.
Trudeau called the meeting and cut short a meeting in Peru to fly back to Ottawa after Kinder Morgan said this week that B.C.’s intention to create new oil shipment and spill rules created too much uncertainty for its project.
The Texas company said unless it had a clear path to build the pipeline and investor protection by May 31, it would step away from the project.
Cameron said Horgan had already stepped back from his initial position to use every tool in the tool box to stop the project and appears to be using a more cautious legal approach, likely an effort to avoid giving Kinder Morgan any fuel to sue B.C.
However, even if there was an answer from the courts that denied B.C. jurisdiction over oil shipments or Horgan backed off his government’s position, it won’t end opposition to the project, warned Cameron.
“The bottom line to me is to get a deal on this you have to pull together all the stakeholders and this is the thing that the Trudeau government has failed to do,” said Cameron.
Supported by oil producers, some unions and groups such as the Business Council of B.C., the project would open up markets in Asia for bitumen from the Alberta oilsands.
Some coastal First Nations, municipalities such as Burnaby and Vancouver, community groups and environmentalists are opposed because of concerns about oil spills and climate change linked to oil extraction and production.
Political scientist David Moscrop, of Simon Fraser University, said a belligerent approach could lead to some kind of economic sanctions from Alberta and Ottawa, perhaps choking off federal money to B.C., although he thought it unlikely.
A middle ground would be Alberta or the federal government investing in the pipeline project or offering protection to the pipeline’s investors, said Moscrop.
The most conciliatory path would be the governments effectively agreeing to disagree and launching a joint reference case in the courts, said Moscrop, a postdoctoral fellow at SFU. “That logic is the federal government and Alberta would expect to win,” he said.
Travelling with Horgan to Ottawa are his deputy minister Don Wright, chief of staff Geoff Meggs and press secretary Sheena McConnell. Also on the trip is special adviser Bob Dewar, who was formerly chief of staff for Manitoba premier Gary Doer and ran Horgan’s 2017 election campaign.
On Friday, B.C. Attorney General David Eby told reporters the government expects to announce a filing date for the reference case shortly and also what approach it will take.
There are basically two options: Ask the Federal Court what jurisdiction B.C. has on oil shipments and pipelines or put to the court a set of regulations and ask for a ruling on its validity.
Eby called the discussion to take place in Ottawa “very important.”
On Friday afternoon, the B.C. government updated the status of Kinder Morgan permits for the project. The province has issued 201 of 587 permits applied for by Kinder Morgan. Applications for another 600 permits have not been submitted by Kinder Morgan yet.