Moving baertschi could help rebuild
Canucks winger might help team even more as a trade chip, says Jason Botchford.
Sven Baertschi is a good player who would have had a fine season if not for injuries. He was on pace for 22 goals and if you look down the Canucks’ roster, and past Brock Boeser, this kind of production remains critically important.
It’s also what makes for some fascinating trade possibilities.
The Canucks had just three 20-goal scorers this season and one, Daniel Sedin, will never play again.
If Baertschi has proven anything in three years with the Canucks, he has a great shot and it’s one that has been widely underrated. Consider, Baertschi’s three-season shooting percentage of 15.5 per cent. It places him 12th in the NHL (minimum 150 games) and is better than some of the game’s best goal-scorers during this run, including Steven Stamkos (14.8) and Sidney Crosby (14.5).
So that’s good.
What’s not? Games played. Baertschi had just 53 of them this season in which he scored his 14 goals. If there is a knock on him up to this point in his career, it’s been an inability to stay in the lineup. In three years he’s played 190 NHL games and has yet to hit 70 in a season in the league.
Seasons are long and tough. Being healthy and available has quite a bit of value. Baertschi has had some incredibly bad luck, like the puck that broke his jaw this season. But there’s enough games missed that you start to question whether or not he can make it through a season.
This isn’t, however, why the Canucks should consider moving him to help their rebuild this off-season. The main reason is they may have already uncovered Baertschi’s replacement. When the Canucks traded a secondround pick to acquire him in 2015, he had scored eight goals in 66 NHL games. Nikolay Goldobin has now scored 12 goals in 61 games. The pair had remarkably similar seasons this year. Goldobin produced 1.71-points-per60-minutes played at five-on-five and Baertschi 1.71.
Goldobin had the better shotattempt ratio at five-on-five (48.74 to 46.12 per cent). He helped control a higher percentage of scoring chances (46.73 to 43.15 per cent).
But the Canucks controlled far more of the goals scored at even strength when Baertschi was on the ice (53.57 per cent) compared with Goldobin (36.96 per cent).
Baertschi is a proven commodity and Goldobin isn’t, but that’s also why Baertschi would have value heading into the 2018 NHL Entry Draft.
The Canucks look locked into the right wingers on their top two lines for next year. Boeser, obviously, on Line 1 and Elias Pettersson, who just blew up the Swedish Elite League playing right wing, is the clear favourite for Line 2.
It currently leaves the leftwing slot on the top two lines open for Baertschi, Goldobin, who can play either wing, Loui Eriksson, Brendan Leipsic, Jonathan Dahlen and a possible free-agent acquisition. That sure looks like more than enough depth on the left side to move Baertschi now and bet on Goldobin with a backup plan also in place if the 22-year-old Russian can’t make it happen in coach Travis Green’s system.
Also worth considering, Goldobin will require waivers next season, so if the Canucks don’t make room for him, they’ll risk losing him at some point. Goldobin is cheap, young and improving. His upside fits nicely with where the Canucks sit now and where they want to be in a few years.
When he started getting consistent minutes after March 11 he had his best run of the year. His 2.09-points-per-60-minutes at even strength after that placed him among the team leaders. He broke even in shot-attempt differential at 50 per cent, suggesting he can handle a bigger role in theNHL.
Baertschi, 25, meanwhile, is a year away from unrestricted free agency and a potential big payday.
In an interview with Postmedia News this week, Vancouver general manager Jim Benning suggested he’d look at re-signing the left winger to a one-year deal. It could set the Canucks up to move him at the trade deadline.
But what would it mean for playing time in the top six for younger players with potential, including both Goldobin and Dahlen? And what if Baertschi suffers some more unlucky injuries? What will his value be then?
There’s risk either way, but the Canucks still need more rebuilding blocks and Baertschi is the type of player who could be one of them come the summer.