Decision to buy Trans Mountain Pipeline may come with a price
Trudeau government risks weakening position with notable supporters
It is a study of contrasts to look at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in 2016, when he said it wasn’t government’s role to be a “cheerleader” for particular projects, versus Tuesday as he championed the $4.5-billion purchase of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain Pipeline.
Trudeau, in social media, declared that government had “taken action” to create jobs and secure “a vital project in the national interest,” but it is a decision that carries political risks for a government that won its mandate with a campaign that was heavy on idealism.
“Basically, it’s a tinder box and they’ve lit the match,” said SFU political scientist David Moscrop.
The federal Liberals made a breakthrough in the 2015 election in B.C., unseating nine MPs from other parties to claim a total of 18 seats, which Moscrop said wasn’t essential in securing the government’s majority then, but could be more important to them by the 2019 election.
“And they will be in a pretty weak position to capitalize on winning seats here,” Moscrop said.
While recent polling suggests public support for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was swaying in favour of the project — an April survey by the Angus Reid Institute found 54 per cent support — there was immediate blowback Tuesday from some notable former Trudeau supporters.
“This decision will haunt (the) Trudeau government,” high-profile environmental activist Tzeporah Berman said in a tweet.
“(Those) of us who knocked on doors for him will not forget that he took billions of dollars from Canadian families to buy out an oil pipeline that violates Indigenous rights and our commitments in climate change.”
Elsewhere on Twitter, the hashtag #NotMyYouthMinister emerged, which gathered more criticisms, such as Dogwood Initiative campaigns co-ordinator Sophie Harrison who characterized the decision as “immense moral cowardice.”
“They’re going to lose the idealists,” said Moscrop, referring to the large blocks of youth, Indigenous people, and environmentalists who came out to vote for Trudeau’s Liberals in 2015.
Liberal MPs that Postmedia was able to contact Tuesday were more cautious about whether there was a future political price in the decision.
“Maybe,” was the response of veteran Vancouver Centre MP Hedy Fry, who said she’s sensed a change in the level of support for the project among her constituents.
A year ago, Fry said probably 70 per cent of her constituents opposed the Trans Mountain expansion and she was unhappy with the project’s approval.
Now, Fry guessed the support and opposition might be more like 50/50, and she guessed that measures such as the government’s $1.5-billion Oceans Protection Plan were responsible for that change. “I think it’s difficult to tell right now,” Fry said.
North Vancouver MP Jonathan Wilkinson acknowledged that he has constituents who are likely unhappy with the decision, but “the vast majority of them are very thoughtful,” and will make rational decisions based on whether they feel their concerns about the environment and ocean safety are addressed.
“My sense is, the people who supported me the last time, the vast majority would continue to support me,” said Wilkinson, who is also parliamentary secretary to Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna.
Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, who is MP for Vancouver South, didn’t address questions, but in an emailed statement repeated the government’s position that Trans Mountain is in the national interest.
Rookie Burnaby North-Seymour MP Terry Beech, a one-time opponent of the project, also did not respond to Postmedia’s request for an interview. “(He’s) reviewing the details closely and will be doing so for the next couple of days,” wrote Beech’s communications officer Tyler Norman in an email.
Moscrop said it is difficult to estimate how big the political impact will be since the pool of Liberal voters who disapprove of Tuesday’s decision is likely smaller than those among the NDP or other parties.
It will be a matter of where those disaffected voters turn to that will determine political outcomes in 2019. He is guessing that Conservative candidates will benefit from a split of the vote on the left side of the spectrum.
Moscrop said the Trans Mountain pipeline issue reminds him of the 2005 Gomery inquiry into the earlier Liberal sponsorship scandal because it is an issue with the potential to keep haunting Trudeau’s government.
“(Trans Mountain) is going to be in the news forever until it’s done,” Moscrop said, “and not necessarily good news.”