CARLSON’S VALUE AT ALL-TIME HIGH
It was right before the start of the season when John Carlson’s agent met with the Washington Capitals in hopes of negotiating a new contract for his client.
At the time, Carlson was coming off one of the worst seasons of his career. The Capitals, meanwhile, had just suffered another post-season disappointment and were taking the necessary first steps toward a retool, if not a rebuild.
Publicly, the two sides agreed to put off all talks until the end of the season. Privately, some wondered if this wasn’t a sign Carlson was heading to free agency.
“His preference was to stay here,” said agent Rick Curran. “But I told him, ‘They’re tight to the cap. They’re not going to be able to sign you right now, so there’s no sense in making a lot of noise because there’s nothing they can do.’”
Carlson said his focus was on the ice.
“There’s enough going on in this league on a day-to-day basis where I just wanted to focus on my teammates and try to win a Stanley Cup ,” he said .“That was my goal. That’s all we really wanted to do.”
Fast forward nine months and it’s pretty much mission accomplished.
The Capitals, who many picked to miss the playoffs, headed into Thursday’s Game 5 with a chance to win their first Stanley Cup. And much of it is because of Carlson, who followed up a 37-point campaign in 2016-17 by leading all defencemen with 68 points in the regular season and adding another 19 in 23 playoff games.
Carlson was ultimately snubbed in the Norris Trophy nominations. But after the year he’s had, there’s no question a much bigger prize should be waiting for the pending free agent on July 1.
The only question is who will be giving it to him: Washington or some other team?
“Everyone knows John Tavares is the top guy, but everyone also recognizes that John Carlson is the second guy and definitely the top defenceman,” said Curran. “There are a lot of teams out there that need a defenceman more than John Tavares.”
Working in Carlson’s favour is that among free agent defencemen, he is in a class unto himself. The closest to him is Detroit’s Mike Green (33 points) or the New York Islanders’ Thomas Hickey (25 points) and they are not even really close to a player who scored 15 goals and 68 points.
As a coveted right-hand shot, Carlson can do it all. He can score, as evidenced by his 15 goals. He can man the power play, where he tied for 12th in the league with 32 points. He can kill penalties, where he was second on the team in usage.
That all-around game is why head coach Barry Trotz said the 28-year-old has joined Norris Trophy finalists Victor Hedman, Drew Doughty and the league’s other top defencemen.
“I think early in the season with Matt Niskanen being out was real key for John,” said Trotz. “He understood that he had to play 30 minutes and he was able to manage everything. Without John being able to play those 30 minutes a night early in the year, I don’t know if we’re even at the .500 level for the first 30 games.”
In the playoffs, he’s been even better. Carlson is averaging close to 26 minutes a game, has a plus10 rating and has scored five goals and 19 points, including two goals and one assist in the first four games of the final.
Add it up and Carlson is in line for a huge payday, likely double the US$4 million he earned this season.
But while it is believed the Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers and several others have considerable interest in the veteran rearguard, the Capitals will get the first — and longest — look.
The problem is, even with the cap rising to an estimated $80 million in 2018-19, there is little wiggle room under the team’s salary cap to fit him in.
Defencemen Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov and Brooks Orpik are already on the books for more than $16 million combined. And forwards Tom Wilson and Devante Smith-Pelly, as well as backup goalie Philipp Grubauer, are in need of contract extensions.
It would take some creativity — potentially buying out the 37-year-old Orpik or trading Niskanen and/or Andre Burakovsky — to fit what is believed to be an $8-million asking price into the roster.
If Washington doesn’t step up to the plate, someone else will.
“John Carlson has already admitted that he would love to stay in Washington with his teammates,” Curran said of the nine-year veteran, who was drafted 27th overall by the Capitals in 2008.
“That’s his team. But there’s a lot of different parts moving around there. At the end of the day, (Capitals GM Brian MacLellan) has first shot at keeping him. The ball’s in their court.
“Having said that, he’s been a good soldier and somewhat underpaid for the last couple of years and now it’s his turn (to earn some real money). If the Washington Capitals step up and find a way to be fair with him and give him what he’s earned, then he’ll stay. Why wouldn’t he?
“But if they can’t, then he’ll look at his options. And at the moment it seems that there’s a number of viable options available.”