Krog mulls bid as Nanaimo mayor in move that could topple NDP
Leonard Krog, the long-serving NDP MLA for Nanaimo, is considering a run for the mayor’s office in his hometown this fall.
And if he does it would set up a crucial byelection in which the governing NDP-Green alliance’s hold on power would be put on the line.
“If the NDP lost that byelection, it would be curtains for the government,” said Liberal strategist Mike McDonald.
It’s all about the numbers game in the minority parliament.
The B.C. Liberals hold 42 seats, the most of any party in the 87-seat legislature.
But the Liberals are outnumbered by the governing NDPGreen alliance.
The New Democrats have 41 seats and the Greens have three, for a total of 44 and a two-seat edge over the opposition Liberals.
There is one independent MLA: Former Liberal Darryl Plecas, who was kicked out of the party after he defied his Liberal colleagues to take the neutral Speaker’s job.
Krog confirmed he’s considering a bid for the mayor’s office in Nanaimo.
“A great number of people have encouraged me,” Krog said. “I have nothing to announce now, but at some point I will have something to say.”
The New Democrats are already preparing for a possible byelection in which the stakes could not be higher.
“We know he’s getting a lot of pressure to run for mayor and that he’s thinking about it,” said NDP communications director Glen Sanford. “We’re very confident we would win that byelection.”
But if the Liberals stole the seat away from the NDP, the result would be a political earthquake in British Columbia that would shake the government to its foundation.
That’s because a Liberal win would give them 43 seats, while reducing the NDP- Green alliance to an equal 43 seats.
A tie. Under the rules, the Speaker is allowed to vote to break a tie in the legislature. But who knows if Plecas — a former Liberal — would vote to keep the NDP in power?
“There’s no way they could continue to govern in a situation like that,” said McDonald, the Liberal strategist. “Andrew Wilkinson (the Liberal leader) would have an excellent case to make with the lieutenant-governor to call an immediate election.”
The Nanaimo seat is historically safe ground for the New Democrats. Krog got more than 46 per cent of the vote in last year’s election and beat the Liberal candidate by more than 3,800 votes.
“Leonard would not be contemplating this decision if he had any doubt about our ability to retain the seat,” Sanford said.
But McDonald is not so sure the NDP are unbeatable on their own turf.
“Governing parties historically do very poorly in byelections,” he said. “Leonard Krog is personally very popular in the riding, but his name would not be on the ballot. The Liberals would definitely have a chance.”