LIBERALS, GREENS ALREADY CASTING EYES ON KROG’S SEAT
New Democrats’ hopes that partner would stand down have been dashed
When veteran NDP MLA Leonard Krog was passed over for a cabinet post last July, he ended up on the losing side of Premier John Horgan’s commitment to appoint an equal number of men and women.
“It was a numbers game,” as reporters Rob Shaw and Richard Zussman wrote in A Matter of Confidence, their stirring account of a landmark year in B.C. politics. “With the commitment to name a gender-balanced cabinet, there could only be so many men.”
Still, Krog did manage to secure a consolation prize when he was elected chair of the NDP caucus with premium pay of $21,000 a year atop the MLA salary of $106,000.
He soon set his sights on the greater prize of Speaker of the legislature, with its cabinet-equivalent premium of $53,000 a year. But those hopes were dashed in early September when B.C. Liberal MLA Darryl Plecas agreed to serve as Speaker, thereby shifting the balance of power in the house in favour of the New Democrats.
At the behest of NDP house leader Mike Farnworth, Krog and two other New Democrats took themselves out of the running for Speaker.
So through the fall and into the winter, Krog — then in his fifth term as an NDP MLA — continued as the functionary chair of a government caucus where he was the longestserving member without a cabinet post.
Meanwhile, with Nanaimo city hall embroiled in a tragedy-as-farce, some citizens approached Krog to run for mayor, which pays about the same as his MLA salary.
He was reluctant at first. But eventually he passed the word that he was thinking about a move to civic politics.
That raised speculation that he was bargaining for a cabinet post by threatening to precipitate a provincial byelection. But Premier John Horgan was not in a giving mood, nor could he afford to be.
For one thing it would be a sign of weakness; for another he’d either have to dump one of the current men in the cabinet or appoint another woman to preserve gender balance.
Then on the weekend, Krog mailed out invitations to attend a special announcement at a Nanaimo hotel this Wednesday evening, where he is expected to announce that he is running for mayor.
The outstanding question is when does he intend to resign his seat in the legislature.
Krog is under no obligation to resign as MLA to run for civic office. He could stick it out until civic election day, Oct. 20, to see if he wins. Nanaimo supplies a historical precedent for someone serving as both mayor and MLA simultaneously.
But that was the incomparable Frank Ney from 1969-72, and I doubt Krog or anyone else could get away with it today.
Besides, I expect candidate Krog will be under pressure from rivals and others to show his commitment to Nanaimo civic politics by giving up the provincial seat before the Oct. 1 commencement of the fall legislature session.
Thus the pending move sets up a byelection challenge that Premier Horgan must have been contemplating ever since he learned Krog was serious about switching to the civic arena.
Yes, the New Democrats have a winning record in Nanaimo, losing only twice (1969 and 2001) in 15 provincial elections.
“I don’t think the NDP is likely to lose Nanaimo,” Krog himself assured reporter Greg Sakaki of the Nanaimo News Bulletin on Sunday.
But sitting governments can readily lose “safe” seats in byelections if the voters are bent on sending them a message or because of an opposition-party gang-up.
On the latter score, note what happened Sunday when Mike Smyth of The Province, who broke the Krog story, reported how the New Democrats were hoping the Greens would sit out the byelection so as not to split the vote.
Not a chance, replied Green Leader Andrew Weaver.
“The B.C. Greens look forward to building on our growing momentum in any and all byelections,” he wrote on Twitter.
“We believe in giving British Columbians something to come out and vote for instead of against. If another party wants to not run against us and instead endorse a Green candidate, then so be it.”
He doesn’t make it easy on his partners in power sharing, does he?
If the Liberals were to wrest the Nanaimo seat away from the New Democrats, it would shift the balance to 43 Liberals versus 43 New Democrats and Greens, with Plecas as Speaker having to cast the deciding vote to break ties.
The possible standoff has prompted a round of speculation about an early election.
Even if the foregoing scenario were to come about, John Horgan would still be premier. Unless he were to lose a vote of confidence, there would be no immediate cause to visit Lt- Gov. Janet Austin to ask for a dissolution.
But in the longer run, the New Democrats would find it increasingly difficult to manage the business of the house, particularly in committee stage, where the Speaker is not permitted to attend, never mind vote.
If the standoff persisted, I expect the premier would eventually decide to go back to the voters, especially if the opinion polls gave him a shot at a stand-alone majority of his own.
But there are a lot of “ifs” between here and there, starting with what Krog himself has to say about the timing of his resignation.
It was a numbers game. With the commitment to name a gender-balanced cabinet, there could only be so many men. ROB SHAW, co-author of A Matter of Confidence