U.S.-CANADA TENSIONS OVER TRADES HISTORICALLY HIGH
Trudeau needs to tackle neighbourly dispute, writes Patrick Gagnon.
Parliament has recessed for the summer and with a federal general election roughly one year away, Ottawa’s political circles are mulling this week’s cabinet shuffle and the possible proroguing of Parliament in the fall. Based on previous Liberal governments and my own experience as a member of Parliament, it was no surprise to see Justin Trudeau’s team renewing legislative priorities and realigning the front bench through the promotion of fresh faces from the eager backbenchers.
Shuffle chatter aside, there is no question that the most serious policy concern facing the Trudeau government today is our trade relationship with the United States. Following the American election, it was sincerely hoped that candidate and Washington outsider Donald Trump would drop the America First campaign rhetoric once inaugurated as president. Moreover, through Canada’s intensive lobbying of the Republican party leadership, cabinet members, including Trump family members, it was expected that we would be spared. After all, are we not America’s closest trading partner and ally and separate from his true intended targets Mexico and China? As it turns out, Trump would have none of it and has clearly dug in his heels.
Trudeau’s key advisers were ill-prepared for what was to ensue with regards to Trump’s early demands of a re-negotiation of NAFTA and his refusal to exempt our lumber and agricultural products from a future accord. The propagation of morning rants and tweets from the president signalling his perceived and illinformed wrongs of Canada on a host of issues clearly indicate that a predominantly amicable trade relationship has eroded between the world’s largest partners in commerce. Painful as it is, an increasingly toxic relationship has ensued with our American cousins. The harsh words exchanged between our two nations have not been as virulent since the reciprocity election of 1911. Back then, the Conservative slogan “No truck or trade with the Yankees” won the day, and no deals were made for more than 75 years.
More worrisome still, Trump’s upfront and unfiltered confrontational outbursts on a host of domestic and international issues are incomparable in the annals of U.S. presidential office holders. Trump demonstrated that he was undeterred by his critics and opponents during the last G7 and NATO summits and that he will continue to hammer home his demands and those of his supporters. He will push for a profound trade realignment that disrupts the established global order and by extension herald the end of Pax Americana and the return of Fortress America. Withal loft his in mind, it appears we have entered the twilight zone of Canada-U.S. relations. What is a PM to do in this delirious pre-election and trade dispute state?
Despite the valiant efforts made by the Trudeau government to maintain the status quo, it has regrettably failed to secure a speedy NAFTA renewal and as a result, has rattled the confidence of our political and business elites. While certainly not in response to the same form of political pressure that Trudeau is under, previous PMs have had to make quick but thoughtful decisions on how best to contain intense political issues of their day. Trudeau should reach out to leading and accomplished individuals to advise him and his cabinet the way that past Liberal prime ministers Lester Pearson and Jean Chretien did at the height of our national unity debates.
For Trudeau’s purposes in the context of the trade negotiation impasse, calling upon the services of recognizable business leaders and cultural trend setters known by Trump’s political base could be the ticket and the legitimacy that he requires to call an early election. Recruiting advisers from outside as he has done for Senate appointments would present the opportunity to cast a political dream team that would take him through the next round of negotiations and forthcoming American presidential election cycle, or until Trump departs from office in a likely second term.
An election call at this time would be comparable to the 1988 Free Trade election that secured Brian Mulroney’s return to office and caused the successful negotiation of a U.S.-Canada trade accord. At present, Trudeau requires all hands on deck with regards to trade relations with the U.S. and cross-party collaboration. Wednesday’s cabinet shuffle along with the appointment of key Canadian leaders with strong ties to the U.S. to assist in solving the dispute, are likely Trudeau’s best options to maintain his leadership and handle this juncture in the Canada-U.S. trade relationship.
Trudeau’s key Advisers were ill-prepared for what was to ensue with regards to Trump’s early demands of A re-negotiation of NAFTA And his refusal to exempt our lumber And Agricultural products from A future accord.
Patrick Gagnon
It appears we have entered the twilight zone of Canada-U.S. relations. What is a PM to do in this delirious pre-election and trade dispute state? PATRICK GAGNON, former Liberal MP