Saudi Arabia’s prince takes plan to global stage

Swift action against Canada a test case, writes Paul Row.

Saudi Arabia’s quick and dramatic reaction to Canada’s advocacy for the human rights of detained bloggers and activists Raif and Samar Badawi reflects the aggressive personal approach taken by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in recent years.

The crown prince, known by his initials MBS, views challenges to the kingdom through the lens of regional rivalries and the instability generated by the 2011 Arab Spring. Targeting Canada is just the latest in a string of attempts to achieve domestic security and promote a vision for the region.

The Saudi intervention in Yemen, starting in March 2015, reflected the young prince’s conviction that the kingdom had a direct interest in preventing the spread of Iranian power in the Arabian Peninsula. Since that time, MBS has positioned himself to be the undisputed leader of a newly assertive Saudi Arabia. He envisions a state that will be able to guide reforms while dictating terms to neighbouring states in danger of warming to Iranian influence.

Saudi foreign policy has been traditionally conservative and often understated. No longer. Under the leadership of MBS, Saudi Arabia has become an assertive and unpredictable player. He seeks regional power while engaging in “authoritarian upgrading ” guided by his own hand.

There are, therefore, two interrelated strategies at play: 1) prevent the growth in influence of rival powers in the region, and 2) prevent the emergence of liberal activists who would destabilize the Saudi monarchy. MBS witnessed firsthand the destabilization of the region that arose after the 2011 protests in Egypt, Syria, Yemen, and perhaps most notably in neighbouring Bahrain. He wishes to prevent a recurrence at all costs.

Canada is a rival oil power with little strategic heft in the Middle East.

So MBS has spearheaded dramatic actions aimed at wielding Saudi Arabia’s considerable financial and military power. He has prosecuted a brutal war in Yemen aimed at an unqualified victory over the Houthi insurgency. He expects this to prevent the growth of Iranian influence in Saudi Arabia’s backyard.

He has championed a united diplomatic standoff against Qatar for its support for change agents throughout the region. He thereby seeks to reduce the pressure at home and among regional allies in Libya and Egypt. He also stifles the revolutionary Hamas movement that will not follow his leadership.

To prevent challenges to his rule, he staged a purge of his political rivals within Saudi Arabia last November. He purged numerous members of the elite from their positions, citing the need to rein in corruption. At the same time, the Saudis apparently detained Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri for a fortnight, during which he announced his resignation.

The bizarre surprise announcement appeared to be a result of the Saudi government’s effort to undermine the influence of Iranian and Syrian allies in Lebanon. Hariri returned to his country within the month and resumed his duties, but has remained silent about details of the incident.

Last week, Muhammed bin Salman’s regional strategy went global. His aggressive moves to manage regional challenges, both internal and external, now extend beyond the Middle East. The strategic importance of Saudi political leadership and oil have typically muted international criticism of the internal politics of the kingdom.

But today, necessarily incremental reforms embolden Saudi citizens to promote even greater change. Foreign human rights activists are less likely to give the kingdom a pass. And this could get out of hand if MBS doesn’t maintain control, at least as far as he sees it.

So MBS has taken this moment to let his regional strategy become a global one. Canada is a rival oil power with little strategic heft in the Middle East.

He knows U.S. President Donald Trump has no interest in defending some sort of united Western front for democratization, and will not stand in his way. Why not test his country’s considerable power and influence with a little experiment?