IS LNG DECISION COMING?

Premier Horgan coy about rumours Shell will make decision as early as next week

The day began with a mounting buzz around the prospects for Kitimat-based LNG Canada becoming the largest private sector investment in Canada and an economic boon to British Columbia.

“Shell poised for LNG Canada decision with signs pointing to yes,” read the headline from the Bloomberg News service.

It followed an encouraging report in the Wall Street Journal earlier in the week, pegged to an interview with the CEO of Royal Dutch Shell, lead proponent on the project.

“We postponed the decision previously when the project wasn’t ready in terms of economic fortunes,” said Ben van Beurden. “But there are only so many times you can postpone and recycle and revisit.”

He suggested the “moment of truth” for the multibillion-dollar liquefied natural gas export terminal would arrive “in the next few months.”

But as the Bloomberg report indicated, decision day was closer at hand, with an announcement expected as early as next week from Shell and its partners in Malaysia, China, Korea and Japan.

Plus, there was that encouraging hint from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, posted on his Twitter feed after he sat down Tuesday with the Shell CEO in New York.

“I had another excellent discussion with Ben van Beurden, on how we can work together to advance energy projects that are good for our economy and our environment — and how to do so responsibly.”

This amid reports that Trudeau’s government was disposed to waive steel tariffs on the component modules for the LNG terminal, which will be constructed overseas and assembled in Kitimat.

All of which set the stage for Premier John Horgan when he met with reporters in Vancouver on Wednesday.

The New Democrats called the early afternoon press conference to announce the cabinet had, as expected, scaled down the maximum allowable rent increase for next year to the 2.5 per cent rate of inflation instead of the formula-driven 4.5 per cent announced earlier.

Welcome relief for tenants, who had endured annual increases at the rate of inflation plus two per cent under the previous B.C. Liberal government.

But harder to reconcile with the NDP government’s stated goal of increasing the supply of rental housing.

Horgan insisted the province would continue to work with landlords and developers to “bring on more supply.” Not clear why that would happen with the NDP having just trimmed the profit margin on rental property.

The premier then fielded media questions on a number of topics, including the challenge from B.C. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson to a debate on the fall referendum on proportional representation.

“I’m not ruling out having a face-to-face debate with Mr. Wilkinson,” said the premier. But he suggested “the better place to start is in the legislature,” which resumes Monday for a fall session.

On LNG, Horgan had already talked up the prospect two weeks ago to the annual convention of the Union of B.C. Municipalities.

“We are now very, very close to realizing a final investment decision from LNG Canada,” the premier told local government representatives, leaving no doubt that he expected a “yes.”

Wednesday he was a bit more coy, hedging his comments with “ifs” and not letting on whether he’d been tipped that the decision was at hand.

Still, he insisted the province would be able to reconcile the shift into LNG production with its targets for greenhouse gas reductions.

The plan for doing so will be laid out by George Heyman, cabinet minister for the environment and climate change, in the session.

Horgan said the key is “more electrification,” including electric cars, transit and other low- or no-emission technology. He did not say if it would also entail using more electricity in the production of natural gas.

The premier acknowledged the Heyman plan faces its toughest test in passing muster with his partner in power sharing, Andrew Weaver.

The climatologist leader of the Greens has repeatedly expressed disbelief that LNG development is compatible with the greenhousegas reduction targets. He has also told supporters and critics alike that he got into politics to fight climate change and won’t bend on the issue.

Hence what he insists is NOT an empty threat to bring down the government over the issue and force an election.

“I know his passion,” Horgan told reporters with a touch of heard-it-all-before weariness in his voice. “He reminds me regularly.”

The premier didn’t sound all that worried, perhaps because he believes Weaver can be finessed, perhaps because the Greens are isolated in their opposition to LNG. Not likely would the Liberals cast a vote to derail LNG Canada.

For now the scenario remains hypothetical, awaiting a decision that could emerge as early as Monday from Royal Dutch Shell headquarters in the Netherlands.

If it is a go, B.C. stands to gain billions of dollars in investment and a shot at weaning itself off the captive market for liquefied natural gas in the United States.

It would also bring to fruition a possibility that has been talked about for decades — 36 years since the Bill Bennett Social Credit government promised LNG for the northwest, 21 years since NDP premier Glen Clark touted a terminal for Kitimat; seven years since the other premier Clark, Christy, launched an “aggressive” push to bring LNG to B.C.

Never mind the victory dance. If LNG Canada goes ahead, the first act should be a collective sigh of relief.

We are now very, very close to realizing a final investment decision from LNG Canada.