UNDECIDED VOTERS COULD USE REFERENDUM DEBATE

With a little over three weeks to go before Elections B.C. begins mailing out ballots, British Columbians appear to be split three ways on the fall referendum on electoral reform.

“Based on how you feel right now, if you were to receive a voting package, which way would you vote?” the Angus Reid Institute asked a panel of 800 British Columbians earlier this month.

Result: 33 per cent would prefer a switch to proportional representation, 31 per cent would stick with the status quo first-past-thepost system, and 33 per cent said they were undecided or unsure.

That amounts to a threeway tie, within the imputed margin of error (plus or minus 3.5 percentage points) for such a sampling of opinion.

Among those who have made up their minds, the choice has tightened considerably since earlier surveys by the independent and nonprofit Reid institute. This time last year, proportional representation led the status quo by almost two to one.

Perhaps the dead heat is a sign of the public souring on the novelty of the NDPGreen partnership. Proportional representation makes power-sharing arrangements more likely.

If so, Andrew Weaver’s periodic threats to bring down the government and force another election are not helping the case for PR as a recipe for stable governments.

The findings of the poll do suggest concerns about minority governments are the biggest reservation voters have about proportional representation.

Almost half (48 per cent) of those polled agreed with the statement: “I don’t like the idea of B.C. having more minority and/or coalition governments.” Only about a third disagreed and the rest were not sure or couldn’t say.

On the positive side for proportional representation, a sizable majority (61 per cent) agreed “a system that more closely reflects the parties’ actual popular support would increase voter turnout.” Only a fifth disagreed and about the same number were on the fence.

Two other findings suggested the status quo may have an advantage, presuming they hold until the Oct. 22-Nov. 30 voting period for the ballotby-mail.

First-past-the-post supporters were more sure of their choice (56 per cent very certain) than those indicating a preference for proportional representation (45 per cent).

Voters aged 55 and older were strongly supportive of first-past-the-post, preferring it by a margin of almost two to one. Younger voters (18-34) went for PR by better than two to one. But historically, “older voters have turned out to vote at higher rates than younger people,” as the Reid institute noted.

“Those who check their mail regularly and are familiar with the postal system will find it easier to vote in the referendum, especially if they haven’t moved recently,” added the pollster, perhaps thinking of younger social media adherents less attuned to traditional forms of communication like Canada Post.

Presuming British Columbians were to opt for proportional representation in the initial run-off with the status quo, the pollster gleaned a strong indication of the likely system that would result.

A second ballot in the same package invites voters to rank their preference between three versions of PR: mixed member, rural-urban and dual member.

Mixed member proportional was the choice of almost half (49 per cent), with the other two options splitting the remainder.

MMP has been supported in the past by the NDP and Green parties, both campaigning for PR in the current referendum. The other two options, hand-picked by NDP Attorney- General David Eby in the admitted absence of a public consensus, are (to quote Eby) “not currently in use” anywhere in the world.

The apparent preference for MMP suggests media coverage ought to focus on that option as the most likely result of any vote in favour of proportional representation.

However, it is difficult to be specific about how MMP would work in B.C. The crafty Eby withheld key aspects to be decided after the referendum is over by a legislature committee where New Democrats and Greens will have a majority of seats, and thus be able to continue to stack the deck in favour of their partisan interests.

Among the things to be decided after the fact are the number of existing seats in the legislature that will be reduced or consolidated (as many as 30 to 35) to create the mixed-member pool. Also, whether the political parties or the voters will choose the ranking of the names in the pool.

The large number of undecided voters indicated by the Reid poll strengthens the case, made by Andrew Wilkinson of the B.C. Liberals, for a leaders’ debate on the referendum.

Premier John Horgan hasn’t ruled out a debate. He would first like to face off with Wilkinson in the fall session of the legislature, starting Monday, and not distract voters during the period leading up to the Oct. 20 civic elections.

Would Green leader Andrew Weaver demand a chair in the debate? If so, Wilkinson may have talked himself into a one-againsttwo matchup.

One finding from the poll suggests the party leaders face a challenge getting many voters to focus on the importance of electoral reform.

About half of those polled (50 per cent) said “this referendum is a low priority to me, there are more important issues facing B.C. today.”

Fewer (42 per cent) disagreed.

Would Green leader Andrew Weaver demand a chair in the debate? If so, Wilkinson may have talked himself into a one-against-two matchup