Vegetarians to face higher prices, but good times roll for meat lovers
Carnivores will benefit from dropping prices for animal protein in the new year, while B.C.’s growing legion of meat-free eaters will pay more for their vegetables, according to Canada’s Food Price Report.
An “astonishing ” 40 per cent of British Columbians aged 35 and under follow some variation of a meat-free diet, about three times the national average, said lead author Sylvain Charlebois, a professor of management and agriculture at Dalhousie University.
Vegetables will see the biggest price increase next year compared to other groceries, between four and six per cent, which creates “a considerable challenge to consumers who struggle to afford healthy food,” the authors say.
The price of vegetables has already gone up four per cent in the past 12 months.
“Because B.C. is so dependent on California and Mexico for fruits and vegetables, the weather effects of El Nino create extra uncertainty,” he said. “El Nino will bring more rain, but not where we need it. Parts of Mexico and the United States will not have enough rain and that will affect crops and our food supply, so we will pay more.”
The cost of meat and seafood is predicted to drop as consumers increasingly turn to plant-based proteins in vegetarian and vegan diets, he said.
The price of high-end beef is already dropping. Prime rib is 13 per cent cheaper today than it was in January, according to Statistics Canada.
That sounds like good news for the fast-growing community of devotees to the ketogenic and carnivore diets, not to mention the emerging community of seagans, who add fish to their vegan diet.
“Yeah, 2019 could be a good year for the carnivores,” said Charlebois. “Conscious carnivores have moved away from beef, because there are a lot of alternatives, but this year the beef industry can buy some love back from consumers.”
A straw poll on social media suggests that some shoppers will buy more animal protein as prices drop.
“Definitely (more) seafood,” said CJ Marr. “Many of my friends and relatives are turning to seaganism.”
British Columbians already spend more than the average Canadian on food and the gap is likely to widen in 2019.
The average Canadian family will spend an extra $411 on food next year, for a total of about $12,157. But prices in B.C., Alberta and Ontario will rise faster than other provinces, the report said.
“Food prices are expected to exceed the general inflation rate, so that’s going to make life tricky for British Columbians,” said Charlebois.
Shoppers admit that violent price spikes on items such as fresh cauliflower can see them dropped at least temporarily from people’s grocery lists.
But following a meat-free diet is generally cheaper if you’re careful about how you shop, they say.
“I wait until the Gardein products are on sale, then stock up,” said Claudia Ferris, whose daughters are both vegan. “It’s super cheap if you make vegan and veggie food from scratch, but most of us are willing to pay for convenience.”
Proteins made from plants have gone up in price, in particular processed and convenience foods such as soy-based products, meatless patties and textured vegetable protein, said John Orser, a vegetarian from Victoria.
“The price of vegetable-based proteins is running ahead of inflation and new prices never seem to roll back,” he said. “I’m also concerned that greenhouses moving from food production to cannabis isn’t factored in to rising vegetable prices.”
The cost of eating in restaurants has increased four per cent in the 12 months ending in September and should climb another two to four per cent as new minimum wage laws come into effect, the report said.
B.C.’s minimum wage is legislated to rise every June until 2021, increasing to $15.20 from $11.35 earlier this year.
“Restaurant owners are adjusting their prices in response to higher wages,” said Charlebois. “We probably won’t see the price hikes that we saw earlier this year, but we should expect prices to go up.”
Canadians spend about 35 per cent of their food dollars eating out.