Johnson edges closer to Brexit deal
Potential solution to N. Ireland
LONDON • A Brexit deal appeared to be taking shape Monday night after sources said a positive day of negotiations had yielded a potential solution to the Northern Ireland border problem.
Sources in Brussels and London said there was “cautious optimism” that a narrow path to a deal could now be appearing — a marked shift in tone from the downbeat assessment from Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, on Sunday.
Boris Johnson cancelled Tuesday’s planned meeting of his cabinet in order to avoid the potential for leaks that could derail the delicate discussions.
It came as Ireland’s foreign minister suggested negotiations could carry on beyond this week’s summit of EU leaders, amid reports an emergency summit could be called to ratify an 11th-hour deal close to the Oct. 31 deadline. Simon Coveney said there was goodwill and determination from both sides to get a deal, but that “it’s too early to say whether it’s possible to get a breakthrough this week or whether it will move into next week.”
At the heart of a possible breakthrough is understood to be a hybrid compromise on the question of customs checks in Northern Ireland, which has bedevilled talks for more than two years.
Following his meeting last week with Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, Johnson has accepted that customs checks will not be carried out in Ireland, but the two sides have failed to find what EU sources call an “operable” solution that works from Day 1.
The Telegraph understands the two sides are inching to an arrangement that would enable Johnson to make good on his promise to Unionists not to leave Northern Ireland behind in the EU’s customs union. The solution may look reminiscent of a “dual customs” territory proposed in Theresa May’s Chequers plan — over which Johnson resigned as foreign secretary — but applied to Northern Ireland.
One senior EU diplomat with knowledge of the talks said: “The big question is whether the pathway identified by Johnson and Varadkar is (metaphorically) wide enough for two customs lorries. That is achievable but remains to be seen.”
It is not yet clear whether progress made Monday can translate into the outline of a deal by Thursday’s EU leaders’ summit, but it is understood there is political will on both sides.
The EU is also understood to be open to the possibility of an extraordinary summit before Oct. 31 if more time is needed to finalize an agreement, which could mean Johnson attempting to repeal the so-called Benn Act when Parliament sits this Saturday. The Act requires Johnson to ask for a three-month extension to Article 50 if he has not agreed a deal by Oct. 19, but if talks are at an advanced stage with an extra EU summit planned, he is likely to argue that no such letter needs to be sent.
Monday, at the opening of Parliament, the Queen said Britain’s priority was to leave the EU at the end of this month. The Queen’s Speech set out six Brexit-related Bills of 26 that the government wants to pass.
A government spokesman said only that the talks in Brussels were constructive “but there is more work to be done.” Sources on both sides cautioned against any talk that the progress amounted to a finished deal.
“No one should underestimate the challenges involved,” said a second senior source. “There is slightly more optimism around, but let’s not overdo it,” added a third.
Barnier will update EU ministers at Tuesday’s General Affairs Council in Luxembourg as both sides scramble to get a final text together for EU leaders to debate on Thursday night.
One government source said: “These talks are really getting down to the nitty gritty now. It is complicated, but it comes down to political will to get a deal done.”
The European Commission is understood to be focused on an outcome that minimizes the risk of creating back doors into the EU’s single market and, crucially, is immediately operable.