How Trudeau can try to make this new Parliament work
Outcome is not as doomed as it looks for minority government, says Diane Francis.
The election chastened the Liberal party and has left it flanked by two “separatist” movements, one in Quebec and another in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
At first glance, the outcome looks doomed, but the fact is that it provides Justin Trudeau with a navigable minority governance situation in a country with two defined regions whose needs must be met.
If they are not, Canada will face another election and two unity crises. Make no mistake, the unanimity of culture and purpose in Alberta and Saskatchewan is just as powerful as in Quebec.
Here is the roadmap that the prime minister can follow to govern for a while: He must variously adhere to the wishes of the Tories and Bloc. This is possible because no single opposition party can bring down the government, which gives him the room to juggle interests and make trade-offs.
In the west, for instance, the Liberals can go ahead with the contentious TMX pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia. The Tories will back them up — forming a single-vote pipeline coalition of convenience. Trudeau’s government has an incentive to do this because it bought the project for $4.5 billion and needs to complete it if it is to rebuild any support whatsoever in Alberta and Saskatchewan. It’s also noteworthy that lower B.C., where the line is, voted Conservative, too.
And while the NDP, Bloc and Greens oppose it, they cannot outvote a Liberal-Tory pipeline collaboration.
Besides the political benefit, the consequences of not building that pipeline, and the lines to exploit natural gas in northern B.C., are dire. Lest anyone have any doubts, a western “separatist” project would be more economically viable and more crippling to Canada than the separatists who have support only in the southern third of Quebec.
Likewise, in the East, the
Liberals must continue to pander to Quebec by abandoning any notion of wading into Quebec’s “hijabgate” controversy or its ban against civil servants and institutions donning religious headgear, jewelry, and images. Also, the Bloc may demand that the feds butt out of tax collection; change the new NAFTA, now in front of Congress, to let Quebec dairy farmers continue supply management; and give SNC-Lavalin a get-out-of-jail pass. The combination of the Liberals and Bloc is greater than the other three, but some of these (notably the SNC deal) would alienate the other three opposition parties that Trudeau needs to remain in power.
As a trade-off to approval of pipelines out west and Quebec concessions, the Liberals will also be bullied by the NDP and Greens into moving ahead with pharmacare, dental care and more environmental strictures. A Liberal coalition of convenience with the NDP and Greens adds up to a majority (in fact, the Liberals and NDP alone could do it).
But if the Liberals capitulate to these demands, Canada’s deficits will soar. The Green’s full-blown pharmacare plan will cost $27 billion in 2020 and rise to $31 billion annually four years later. This is bigger than Canada’s defence budget. And free post-secondary education is another $16 billion annually.
Unfortunately, the Conservatives and Bloc cannot prevent this from happening, but will benefit from this recklessness in the next election as taxes and deficits explode.
It’s messy, but the path is navigable for the next four years if Trudeau is nimble and persuasive enough. Obviously, the Liberals will do anything to remain in power because a snap election would likely give Conservatives more seats and an even higher percentage of the popular vote (they got almost 250,000 more than the Liberals).
Bottom line: the election allows the country’s two defined regions to be tails that can wag the dog but also to be played off against each other. It’s very complicated. Trudeau may be unable to keep everyone a little bit happy. Stay tuned.