Western alienation not easily solved

Canada’s survival depends on Trudeau bringing us together

It’s been like this before, when the Canadian electoral map showed a great Conservative blue sea had washed over the Prairies.

But the last time, it was even worse. In the 1980s, there wasn’t a speck of Liberal red anywhere west of Winnipeg. It’s really no coincidence that the last time it happened, the prime minister was Pierre Trudeau.

Mention Pierre Trudeau’s name on the Prairies and the National Energy Program will inevitably be spat back at you.

Or, if you’re talking to older farmers, they will tell you about the day in Regina when he sneeringly asked them, “Why should I sell your wheat?”

The fact that Justin Trudeau overcame that legacy in 2015 was more of a miracle than was perhaps recognized at the time. And, it’s different this time. There are four Liberals from Manitoba and 11 from B.C.

There is a lone New Democrat in Alberta, as well as 11 in B.C., and three in Manitoba.

There are also two Greens and an Independent from B.C.

It’s not good. But it’s not as bad as the premiers of Alberta and Saskatchewan want people to believe.

That’s not to minimize the task ahead. If anything, it’s to amplify the message that if the Canadian project is to continue to work — if this triumph of politics over geography is to succeed — Trudeau must pay special attention to the very real concerns of the people who live in the oil-and-gas producing regions of Saskatchewan, Alberta and B.C.

This isn’t only about governing with a minority.

At the heart of this rift are existential questions:

■ Can Canada transition from oil and gas extraction to net-zero carbon emissions in 2050 without destroying the lives and livelihoods of close to 5.6 million Canadians, and other Canadians who benefit from their prosperity?

■ Can Canadians survive if they don’t?

Trudeau needs westerners to drive the process of finding the answers. But how does he find them in the arid Prairies, where voters both federally and provincially have so overwhelmingly rejected political parties with climate-change policies that are anything more than a wish and a prayer?

He might want to start in the far west with North Vancouver MP Jonathan Wilkinson. Most people in Vancouver likely wouldn’t recognize him walking down the street. But as the minister for fisheries, oceans and the Coast Guard, he was involved in changing shipping regulations, and responding to the declines of resident killer whales and salmon.

Wilkinson already has been talking to people in the Prairies. He’s been thinking about all that blue in Alberta and Saskatchewan, about how people there are afraid what the future might look like in a lower-carbon universe, and about how they feel that no one is taking their present economic problems seriously.

For Wilkinson, it’s personal. He grew up in Saskatchewan. His parents still live there. He has friends there, and he’s had experience working in the provincial government both as a civil servant and as an adviser to NDP Premier Roy Romanow during the constitutional negotiations.

But the existential questions are also a good match with his education and experience. With a master’s degree from Oxford in politics, philosophy and economics, he ran in 2015 because he believes that science and data aren’t being used enough to inform public policy.

Unlike many politicians, Wilkinson’s experience isn’t limited to government. He has shepherded three green technology companies from startup to success. “We need to be listening and working toward economic prosperity in a lower-carbon universe,” he said on Wednesday. “We need to look at different pathways.”

But first, he said, everyone including the two Prairie premiers needs to dial back the rhetoric because finding areas of agreement isn’t impossible.

Wilkinson hasn’t spoken to Trudeau since election night, but he said he was ready to do whatever the prime minister asks of him.

There are others whose unique experiences could help Trudeau negotiate both the unity and environmental issues. Among them is Martha Hall Findlay, a lawyer, entrepreneur and former Liberal cabinet minister who ran for the federal party leadership in 2006 and 2013. She moved to Calgary in 2011 and has been president of the Canada West Foundation think-tank since 2016.

But Trudeau needs more than just politicians, oil executives and Liberals (past and present).

The prime minister and the rest of Canada need to hear from the people of Saskatchewan and Alberta, many of whom already have lost their jobs, struggled to find others, and are now working for much lower wages than they did before. He needs to understand that as much as they want their kids to be able to breath clean air, they also want them to be able to eat and have a roof over their heads.

And it wouldn’t hurt if Canadians and the prime minister understand that Prairie grievances date back more than a century, before oil was even discovered.

Then, it wasn’t pipelines, it was the national railway that came to symbolize Eastern oppression and indifference, and the cure of “God-damn the CPR” was said with all the fervour of prayer.