Some key dates for ‘recovery budget’ as lockdown eases
Finance minister’s briefing reveals there’s a lot of unknown numbers
As media briefings go, the one with Finance Minister Carole James on Monday focused more on what the government doesn’t know than what it does know about the shape of things to come.
“There are so many unknowns,” said James, referring to the budget and fiscal plan she tabled back in February for the financial year that began April 1.
“I know it feels like forever to everybody out there,” the finance minister acknowledged. “But we are still only two months into the fiscal year, April and May. There is still a lot of data to be collected.”
The state of the economy likewise remains a big question mark, with the province just starting to emerge from COVID-19 restrictions and myriad unknowns about jobs and growth.
But Monday was also the day when the legislature’s finance committee dutifully began its annual public consultations on the provincial budget for next year.
“It really is an opportunity for people because that will be a recovery budget,” said James.
“So it’s important to give the public an opportunity to say what their priorities are, what areas do they want us to take a look at for the upcoming budget.”
But given the almost fancifully distant time frame for a budget not scheduled to be tabled until February 2021, you have to wonder if the consultations will be all that relevant to the events that follow. In between then and now, there are many other key dates on the schedule that should help clarify at least some of the unknowns for the government and the public alike.
Friday, June 5. Statistics Canada is scheduled to release the May labour force survey. The reports for March and April together served up a record loss of 400,000 jobs to the B.C. economy.
“The numbers will continue to be tough,” James predicted, there being a big lag between when the survey is assembled and when it is released.
“We did not really start the restart process until a week and a bit ago ... you won’t start seeing the restart numbers until our July and August data.”
June 22. The legislature resumes for a session like no other, staged as a combination of limited-seating sittings in the chamber and online virtual meetings.
One of the main jobs is scrutiny and final approval of the budget, including the $60-billion spending plan announced in February and the $5-billion COVID-19 package added in a truncated one-day session on March 23. The latter was pretty much a blank cheque, so it will be up to James and the other ministers to lay out the details, especially of the $1.5 billion set aside for a still-unspecified economic recovery plan.
Mid-July. Expected date for the release of the public accounts and audited financial statements for the financial year that ended March 31. In the last update, the accounts were in surplus with about $1.5 billion yet to be allocated. James may have been able to use some of that for one-time program funding, reducing the impact of the subsequent crash in provincial revenues.
End of July. The legislature is expected to adjourn after a six-week session. Depending on how the recovery is going, the government may choose to top up the supplementary funding for programs and to accelerate capital spending on schools, transportation and other infrastructure.
“I think this is sufficient for now,” said James when the initial $5-billion supplement was approved back in March.
“But the situation will continue to evolve, and we expect that we will need to be flexible to meet the needs as well.”
Early September. James scheduled to table an update on the first quarter of the budget year, April through June. Should provide the first sign of how big a hit the province has taken on revenue and the take-up on the COVID-19 assistance and rescue packages.
The province has allowed businesses to defer payment of some taxes, but the deferrals begin to run out starting in September.
“We will need to look at those deadlines,” James acknowledged Monday. “Maybe there are payment plans where a payment is made over a number of months.”
Oct 5. Date for opening of a five-week fall sitting of the legislature. But it may not happen this year because of concerns about a second-wave outbreak of COVID-19 coinciding with the fall influenza season. One reason why the New Democrats hope to wrap up the legislative year in July.
Late November. James to release second quarterly report covering the first six months of the financial year. By then she should have a good reading on the size of the deficit, almost certainly numbered in the billions of dollars. She should also know where the year’s economic contraction is likely to fall, within the seven to 12 per cent downward slide suggested by the B.C. Business Council.
Early December. James will hold her annual daylong consultation with the economic forecasting council made up of representatives from the banks and other experts. The meeting should provide a preliminary estimate on how big a recovery the province can look forward to next year after the annus horribilis of 2020.
Feb. 16, 2021. Likely date for the province to table the next provincial budget, though we should allow for the possibility that the schedule could be thrown off by further unexpected events.
The meeting should provide a preliminary estimate on how big a recovery (B.C.) can look forward to next year after the annus horribilis.