Transit recovery could take years
TransLink CEO says ridership’s return is dependent on vaccine
This time last year, Metro Vancouver was one of the few major urban areas in North America that had seen steady growth in its transit ridership.
Now, like others in the public transportation field, the region’s transit authority is struggling to deal with a huge drop in ridership and revenue resulting from months of restrictions meant to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
To what extent TransLink will recover and how long it could take are questions academics and those in the industry are struggling to answer.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there, but the only thing that I think is likely is certainly during this interruption period there will be fewer riders. What the disruption looks like on the other side of the interruption remains to be seen,” said Anthony Perl, an urban studies and political science professor at Simon Fraser University.
Based on what we have learned from past pandemics, Perl said, it takes years for a transit system’s ridership to recover — in the case of SARS in China, it took three years.
The problem, Perl said, is that it’s hard to say when the clock starts on that three-year period.
At the lowest point, transit boardings in Metro Vancouver were down about 85 per cent across all modes compared to the same time last year. By early last week, ridership had increased 32 per cent from early April, but was still down 75-78 per cent compared with last year.
On Tuesday, health authorities announced there had been four new cases of COVID-19 reported in B.C. during the past day, though no deaths. There are now 207 active cases of the disease in the province, with 31 patients in hospital, including eight in intensive care.
TransLink CEO Kevin Desmond said last week he expects it will be a long time before ridership numbers rebound — until after there is an effective treatment or vaccine — but he doesn’t believe the pandemic is the “death knell” for public transit, as has been posited in some circles.
Desmond thinks Metro Vancouver as a region is predisposed toward significant demand for public transportation, and as the economy slowly reopens, people will want to return to that option.
“I also know there are deep, deep concerns that the general public has here, and based on surveys we’ve seen throughout the world, with their own sense of personal safety,” he said. “So, it’s going to be a personal decision for anyone, any traveller, whether and when they wish to come back and use public transportation.”
A recent poll from Research Co. found that across B.C., people have mixed feelings about using transit, with 57 per cent of respondents saying they would ride a bus without a COVID-19 vaccine and the rest saying they would not. The split was similar when people were asked about whether they would ride SkyTrain.
Another survey, done by Mustel Group for the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, showed that 34 per cent of Metro residents expect to reduce their use of transit.
Desmond said the key is restoring trust and making sure the travelling public — whether they use transit by choice or necessity — is confident that their system is safe. TransLink has instituted an operating program that includes measures like more intense and frequent cleaning, limiting buses to two-thirds capacity, slowing the flow of people into SkyTrain stations and encouraging mask wearing.
However, Alex Boston, executive director of the Renewable Cities program at SFU’s Centre for Dialogue, said that in terms of instilling confidence, we could learn from the leadership of cities that have beaten back COVID -19 infections while sustaining their public transit systems, and the safeguards and messaging they have in place.
“Something we have to do is help the commuting public appreciate the critical importance of our transit systems, and have them feel safe in them,” Boston said.
Perl added that making transit faster — prioritizing buses, making some SkyTrains express trains — might draw in people who are leery of spending too much time cooped up with others.
In the meantime, many people are making fewer trips thanks to being able to work and do other tasks from home, or finding other ways to get around, including turning to their cars.
The Mustel Group survey found that 36 per cent of respondents in Metro said they plan to increase their car use or ownership because of the pandemic. While Perl doesn’t see people running out to buy cars, he agrees that people who have vehicles and can afford to drive will use them more often.
“The car has become the ultimate form of PPE (personal protective equipment) now,” Perl said.
Cars aren’t the only alternative to transit.
The Mustel poll showed that 32 per cent of respondents want to increase active modes of transportation.
“If a shift is toward the single-occupancy vehicles, what we get is congestion and pollution, road safety traffic crashes,” said Meghan Winters, an associate professor in SFU’s health sciences department. “So, it’s really important right now that as people are suddenly changing their behaviours in a way that we never anticipated, that we make sure that to the greatest degree possible we can ensure that those people are shifting toward walking and cycling.”
Winters said there are lineups outside of bike stores and a “massive uptick” in bike purchases, so transit trips and even some short vehicle trips may be replaced by active modes. In order to encourage that switch, she said there needs to be adequate space for cyclists and pedestrians on the roads.
Winters pointed to initiatives in New Westminster and Vancouver as examples of reallocating road space.
“Cities are responding,” she said.