THE NUMBERS LOOK GOOD
Next phase of reopening on horizon
B.C.’s success at dramatically slowing the spread of the coronavirus means the province might be able to move into the next phase of easing in a few weeks.
An analysis of cases and computer modelling data released Thursday suggests the province will experience continued declines in transmission achieved through widespread social distancing.
The positive results have continued even though physical distancing restrictions were eased in the third week of May, allowing, for example, restaurants to reintroduce seated dining.
Personal services businesses such as hair salons and physiotherapist offices were also allowed to reopen.
The next restart phase would include hotels and resorts, the film industry and some entertainment such as movies.
“I will never put a date on it because much of it depends on what we do. But we’re very hopeful that we’ll get to our next phase in the middle of June, into July,” said Dr. Bonnie Henry, B.C.’s provincial health officer.
Globally, the virus continues to spread, she said, noting the recent dramatic increases in Brazil and Russia.
“When there is this virus anywhere, we are all at risk, so we can’t (ease) off everything,” said Henry.
B.C. faces its own challenges, such as clusters of cases in workplaces, including at poultry plants in the Fraser Valley, she said. But Henry said she doesn’t believe that B.C. will experience explosive growth of the virus if people continue to practise physical distancing. Where there are closer interactions, measures will be needed such as barriers between people, she said. Those include Plexiglas partitions between store clerks and shoppers and limiting the number of people in stores.
Information released by the province shows there were 144 cases detected between May 1831 as restrictive measures were eased. At about 10 a day, it’s well down from the 50-80 cases a day reported in March.
Of those 144 cases, most were in the Fraser Health region with 57 in Fraser South, 46 in Fraser East and 10 in Fraser North. Another 13 were in Coastal Health, all in the Vancouver area and none in Richmond.
The total cases from January to the end of May in these health delivery zones, the most geographically detailed information made public so far, showed Vancouver at 540 cases, 259 in North ShoreCoast Garibaldi and 88 in Richmond. In Fraser Health, Fraser South had 523 cases, Fraser North had 411, and Fraser East had 367.
Computer modelling shows that if distancing restrictions are relaxed so that interactions among people rise to 70 per cent of normal or higher, there could be a rapid rebound in transmissions. However, modelling estimates that interactions are about 30-40 per cent of normal now and transmission isn’t expected to increase if interactions rise to 60 per cent.
That provides some leeway, said Henry.
Modelling also shows that a partial reopening of schools will have minimal effect on transmission if vulnerable adults maintain physical distancing. As school reopens, isolation of sick individuals can prevent renewed growth of cases.
Information on the genetic makeup of the virus shows that most cases in B.C. are linked to Europe or Eastern Canada. There was also transmission from Washington state, but not much from China or Iran except some early cases.
B.C. Health Minister Adrian Dix said the analysis showed the importance of continued border restrictions. At the end of May and start of June, there were thousands of cases in each of Washington state, Ontario and Quebec, noted Dix. “The continuing importance of measures involving quarantine and self isolation when people return to B.C. are key — and measures at the border continue to be key,” said Dix.
UBC epidemiologist Daniel Coombs found it interesting that contact tracing before March 15, when restrictions were brought in, showed people had about 10.7 contacts per case, while after March 15 they dropped to 3.6.
That lends credence to the estimates of reduced interactions to 30-40 per cent of normal in the modelling, noted Coombs.
The continuing importance of measures involving quarantine and self isolation when people return to B.C. are key.