HUB CITY STILL A GOOD IDEA?
NHL infections raise eyebrows
Dr. Brian Conway is an unabashed hockey fan.
The Vancouver Canucks season-ticket holder is president and medical director of the Vancouver Infectious Diseases Centre. He understands both passion for the game and prudent procedures to ensure player safety.
He understands that, should Vancouver be named one of two NHL hub cities for resumption of play, health concerns will reach another level.
With 11 of more than 200 players testing positive for COVID-19 since Phase 2 of the return-to-play plan was launched on June 8, there is nervousness within the NHL Players’ Association and concern in the medical community.
“Tremendously so,” Dr. Conway said Monday. “We need to understand where each and every case came from for a strategy to understand it, to trace contacts and prevent effects of each case. As we move to the next phase and more (people) are in contact with even greater groups for more significant periods, we need to make sure the 11 doesn’t become 50 and 100 and even a larger number that we can’t control.
“The fact there are (NHL) cases is of concern, and 11 of 200 is higher than most would have expected. The key is understanding how it happened. How did they get infected? Did they arrive at the facilities infected? Did they acquire the infection while training in these small (voluntary) groups of six? And as a result of them becoming infected, did anyone else become infected, and can we stop further cases from occurring?
“The virus isn’t going to go away completely — at least in the foreseeable future. If players test positive, they need to be isolated and there needs to be tracing. And until we can do that properly, you need to put a hold on things until that can be accomplished.”
B.C. has crushed the positive-test case curve, but big tests await. The Canucks open their two-week training camp on July 10 at Rogers Arena in Phase 3 and they’re allowed 30 skaters and an unlimited number of goalies.
For post-season play, the number shrinks to 28 skaters plus unlimited goalies, but those on the injury reserve don’t count toward the totals.
The Canucks are adding forwards Sven Baertschi, Tyler Graovac and Justin Bailey, defencemen Brogan Rafferty, Ashton Sautner, Guillaume Brisebois, Olli Juolevi and Jalen Chatfield, plus goaltender Mike DiPietro.
The Canucks will play an exhibition game before teams depart to the hub cities for practice in advance of Phase 4 and an Aug. 1 startup for post-season play. And that’s where it gets interesting under the cohort quarantine concept that would keep players and staff isolated in arena and hotel bubbles.
Hub cities will house a dozen teams in conference playdowns and a 24-team Stanley Cup tournament. It means a dozen teams could be housed here in a 50-person bubble with testing every other day at the clubs’ expense. No mass excursions to restaurants or clubs. Is that enough? “Probably,” said Dr. Conway. “We have to understand these tests are not perfect. And if you test people — even if they’re infected or if they have no symptoms — the tests will be falsely negative 30 per cent of the time. So, the test has limitations. If we were to increase daily testing, you would increase false negative results, but have people who are healthy and feel well.
“It would give a false sense of reassurance. The more you test, the better off you are. It’s probably the right balance. And we need to also test the general population and don’t keep them from access. It’s a very good place to start and it makes sense.”
As for the cohort quarantine amendment to the additional 14day isolation period when re-entering Canada, Dr. Conway is buoyed by the manner in which B.C. has embraced distancing measures. Environment plays a huge role in community transmission. Even if someone doesn’t follow the proper edicts, public awareness of COVID-19 protocols is a plus.
“It’s what really saved our bacon in B.C.,” said Dr. Conway. “We applied it with a fervour and people understood it and abided by it. It’s why we’ve had different phases. Stick to a bubble and then a double bubble and that’s easy to contact trace. Players have to stay in the bubble unit the end of the playoffs.”
A mobile app can also locate positive cases and help with tracking within a bubble group. But that might not satisfy players worried about pre-existing health conditions or family concerns, forcing them to consider opting out of post-season play.
“That needs to be allowed from a public health point of view,” said Dr. Conway. “This is an infection that can kill you. In a young, healthy athlete, the mortality rate is much lower, but it’s not zero. Healthy kids have developed weird symptoms where they’ve had strokes.”
OVERTIME: Phase 2 groups will be expanded to 12 players today. Rogers Arena remains closed, with the few Canucks in the city choosing to train and skate on their own.