TransLink projects losses up to $1.4B in worst-case pandemic scenario
As B.C. enters the next phase of its restart and transit ridership in Metro Vancouver slowly recovers, TransLink continues to face a bleak financial outlook.
TransLink has been working with four COVID-19 recovery and rebuilding scenarios — quick recovery, lasting impacts, hibernation, and paradigm shift — which were first articulated in April, then updated and presented to the Mayors’ Council on Thursday.
In each of these cases, staff have projected how much TransLink would lose in fare revenue, fees and taxes this year and next.
“Basically, we’re measuring how long the pandemic will last as well as how long the rebuild period is,” said chief financial officer Christine Dacre.
The first, and most optimistic, scenario would see phases two and three of reopening go smoothly and a progression to the fourth phase by July 2021. Unemployment would reach 10 per cent, and the recession would last 18 months. Depending on travel demand, TransLink could lose $544 million to $945 million in fiscal 2020-21.
The lasting impacts scenario would see Phase 4 reached by January 2022, 15 per cent unemployment, and a four-year depression. If there is high travel demand, TransLink could lose $703 million, but if demand is low it could lose $1.18 billion.
A hibernation scenario would see a second major wave and a smaller third wave of the pandemic and send B.C. back into tighter restrictions for two months each time. Phase four would be reached by January 2023, unemployment would remain at 10 per cent, and there would be an 18-month recession. In this case, TransLink could lose $900 million to $1.23 billion.
The final, and worst-case scenario, would see repeated attempts to move to the second phase of reopening met with new major outbreaks, forcing a return to Phase 1. Phase 4 would be reached by January
2023, unemployment would reach 20 per cent and recover to 10 per cent after four years, persisting until 2030. TransLink projects losses of between $1.29 billion and $1.4 billion.
Mayors’ Council chairman Jonathan Coté said TransLink is facing significant financial challenges and things are improving, but the transit authority is not out of the woods.