NO CASE FOR SNAP VOTE

The B.C. Liberals marked the return to the legislature this week by talking up the possibility of the New Democrats calling an early election in the fall.

“B.C. Liberals call out Horgan’s hazardous snap election plan,” said the headline on the news release from the Opposition party.

The Liberals cited a recording from a recent online training event for NDP campaign workers where Premier John Horgan said: “The election could come at any time. This fall, next spring.”

However, that is not precisely what the NDP leader said. The full quote: “The election could come at any time. This fall, next spring or, most definitely, next October when the end of our mandate arrives.”

The latter is a reference to the written-into-law default date for the next election: Oct. 16, 2021. The New Democrats and the Greens signed an agreement to work together until then.

Yet Horgan, in the training video, did say the NDP needs to prepare for “how we campaign during a pandemic.”

“How do we run a campaign when people don’t want to open the door to talk to us? When we can’t gather in groups larger than 50?” he asked the trainees during the campaign workshop.

The mention of campaigning during the current novel coronavirus pandemic brought a blast from the Liberals.

“We believe British Columbians want to see elected officials doing their jobs — keeping us safe from the virus and focusing on economic recovery — not playing political games,” fumed Liberal party executive director Emile Scheffel.

“So if John Horgan wants an election this fall, he needs to explain to British Columbians why the NDP’s political agenda is more important than their health and safety, and B.C.’s economic recovery.”

That statement tells all you need to know about what the Liberals have gleaned from the opinion polls, including their own.

When Opposition parties are in a competitive position, they dare the government to call an election. When they make arguments for not going to an election, it is because they expect they would lose.

“Let’s be clear,” added Scheffel, with a hint of someone whistling past the graveyard. “The B.C. Liberals will be ready to fight and win the next election, no matter when John Horgan calls it.”

But as evidence that the Liberals aren’t ready, he closed with a pitch for members to “help us close the fundraising gap” with the NDP.

As further evidence of the Opposition party’s state of non-preparedness, the Liberals this week nominated only the fourth of the 87 candidates they will need to field a full slate in the next election.

She’s Roxanne Helme, a lawyer and community volunteer, named to represent the Liberals in Oak Bay- Gordon Head.

Liberal Ida Chong held Oak Bay from 1996 to 2013 until she was beaten by Andrew Weaver of the Greens. With MLA Weaver not running again, the Liberals believe they have a good shot at recapturing the seat.

The New Democrats held the seat with Elizabeth Cull from 1989-1996. They’d like to take it back in the course of winning a majority on their own, freeing themselves from further dependence on the Greens.

Horgan’s quest for a majority is real enough and it has the Liberals speculating that he could contrive a legislative showdown with the Greens as an opening to call an early election.

The NDP-Green power-sharing agreement mandates only one confidence vote a year — on the main budget motion — and it passed Feb. 27.

Nor is the legislature likely to sit this fall. The scheduled five-week session starting Oct. 5 will probably be put off because of concerns about a return of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has repeatedly cautioned about the possibility of a second wave of the pandemic coinciding with the fall flu season.

The threat of a second wave also diminishes the likelihood of a fall election call — judging from a briefing on election contingency planning that chief electoral officer Anton Boegman provided to the legislature finance committee back in April.

“Elections B.C. is operating under the directives and guidelines of the office of the provincial health officer,” Boegman told the MLAs on the committee.

“We’ve been in contact with that office to better understand the current situation, how it may evolve and how it has impacted our mandate.”

Bottom line: “Their guidance at this time is that elections represent a significant public health risk and that they should be deferred until such time in the future that they can safely be held.”

The advice had already precipitated the cancellation of some byelections at the civic level here in B.C., Boegman noted.

“What an election may look like in six, 12 or 18 months, will of course be directly impacted by how the pandemic has progressed, by the potential effect of a second or third wave and whether a vaccine is available and widely administered,” he went on to say.

“Any electoral activities would necessarily be modified by the public health directives that are in place at that time.”

I doubt Dr. Henry would change her mind about the significant health risks of holding an election before she sees how a second wave would play out this fall.

Premier Horgan has made it a point of pride to be guided by Dr. Henry’s advice. I can’t see him disregarding it for the possible short-term gain of an early election.

The threat of a second (virus) wave ... diminishes the likelihood of a fall election call.