New union poll shows NDP widening the popularity gap
Premier John Horgan’s NDP is experiencing consistent, possibly rising support while the backing for the B.C. Liberals and B.C. Greens has waned, according to a new poll.
If an election were held today, almost 36 per cent of voters would cast their ballot for a Horgan-led NDP, versus 17 per cent for Andrew Wilkinson’s Liberals, according to the Strategic Communications poll commissioned by two B.C.based union locals.
For the Liberals, it represents a reversal from the party’s own polling in February, which showed them practically deadlocked as both parties were girding for the possibility of a snap election because of instability in the B.C. Green party leadership.
Horgan’s government, which operates with the backing of the B.C. Green party under a so-called confidence and supply agreement, has a mandate to govern until the fall of 2021, as long as that agreement holds.
Interim Green Leader Adam Olson said the party’s commitment to that agreement remains, even under the challenges of COVID-19.
“We have shown for more than three years that minority governments can be stable,” Olsen said in an emailed statement. “There is no reason to believe that has to change now.”
The results of this poll, conducted in mid June, come from respondents who have lived through three months of the COVID-19 pandemic and reflect the considerable boost in approval ratings for all Canadian premiers seen to be presiding over effective responses to the public health crisis.
“We’re getting close to end of (the government’s) term, regardless of how you look at it,” said Brian Cochrane, business manager of the 12,000-member Local 115 of the International Union of Operating Engineers, one of the unions that commissioned the survey.
Cochrane said the unions aren’t trying to prod Horgan into sparking an early election, but he acknowledged there is speculation that might happen and “these are good things to know now.”
What’s of more interest to IUOE Local 115 and Local 1611 of the Laborers’ International Union of North America is demonstrating that government is in a strong position to spend on infrastructure projects to spur a COVID-19 economic recovery.
“These will be talking points for us to take to government for sure,” Cochrane said, with additional emphasis on the community benefit agreements that government has included on previous projects such as the Pattullo Bridge replacement.
The survey does have a significant undecided component, 28 per cent of respondents, with another three per cent who said they wouldn’t vote at all, and three per cent who declined to say which party and
We have shown for more than three years that minority governments can be stable. There is no reason to believe that has to change now.
leader they would support.
Include only decided voters and Cochrane said the support for a Horgan-led NDP amounts to 54 per cent versus 26 per cent for Wilkinson-led B.C. Liberals.
The NDP’s support is highest on Vancouver Island at almost 42 per cent, where Liberal support is lowest at 12 per cent and Green support, at 13 per cent, is also at its highest.
The gap between the Liberals and NDP is narrowest in Vancouver, where NDP support was 29 per cent of respondents versus 22 per cent for the Liberals and six per cent for the Green.