THE NEW FOOD MARKET

B.C. battles cooking fatigue

Online food sales have surged over the past year as the pandemic has kept consumers cooped up at home, but British Columbians are still finding ways to keep it local.

Money spent on “food e-tailing” has doubled since the beginning of the year, “so we're talking about billions and billions of dollars,” said

Sylvain Charlebois, lead author of Canada's Food Price Report.

“Meal kits play a huge role in that and will continue to do so as people battle cooking fatigue,” he said.

Hundreds of local businesses were either ready for an e-tailing boom or quickly pivoted. The Hastings Park and Riley Park farmers' markets are even open for online sales.

“We do eat out a lot less, but we support small restaurants that do heat 'n' eat. We get the pancake mix from Red Wagon, curries and sauces from Maenam,” said Squamish resident Katherine Manson. “We're even more locally conscious than before, and that's saying a lot.”

Businesses that take back the packaging for recycling, such as

Vancouver-based Fresh Prep, were particularly popular in a straw poll on social media.

“When we went with Fresh Prep, we ordered less takeout, so there was a decrease in the amount of packaging ... and we had a lot less food waste,” said Manson, a PR consultant. “It's a big time saver and we spend less on food each month.”

“In order to have that much variety in our cooking routine, the money spent would be outrageous to stock all of the spices, vinegars and oils,” she added.

Some local sellers of prepared meals, such as Fed Meal Club, drew praise for using biodegradable paper-based packaging, while services that create too much waste were scorned.

“Packaging absolutely weighs in,” said Vancouver food writer Rebecca Coleman.

“Some have recycling programs, and those are the ones I have used.”

The meal kit space promises to get more crowded than ever as grocery stores and restaurants start to offer similar products, said the study's co-author James Vercammen, a professor in UBC's faculty of land and food systems.

“Ordering in has been the real growth market and, because of the pandemic, ordering groceries online has been huge as well,” he said.

B.C. saw above-average food price increases in 2020 and they are predicted to rise again in the coming year, while prices will decline in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario.

“The fundamental story behind those differences is that B.C.'s economy is going to be stronger than the Prairies' and grocers will charge what the market will bear,” said Charlebois, a professor at Dalhousie University.

The report combines predictive models and machine learning, market data, and consumer behaviour to estimate price changes in eight food categories.

Vegetables and meat are set to rise in price by 4.5 to 6.5 per cent in the coming year. Baked goods are predicted to increase in price by 3.5 to 5.5 per cent, while dairy prices are expected to increase by just one to three per cent.

Despite the pandemic, only two categories exceeded last year's estimate: meat (6.1 per cent) and dairy, including cheese (3.1 per cent).

“I think it's absolutely amazing how resilient our food supply chains have been in this crazy pandemic,” said Vercammen.

When the pandemic first hit last March, consumers cleared store shelves of long-lasting staples such as tuna, pasta, soup, peanut butter, flour, rice, and frozen fruits and vegetables, the report notes.

“I think consumers were really convinced that our food supply chains weren't going to be up to snuff,” he said.

“But even with those bumps, food prices were remarkably stable.”