B.C. failing key virus control lessons

Province needs to employ a clear `COVID Zero' plan, SFU expert says

B.C. has failed to implement the lessons to be gleaned from provinces and countries that have successfully controlled the spread of SARS-CoV2, the virus that causes COVID-19, an SFU academic argues.

Many Pacific Rim countries, such as Australia, New Zealand, China, Taiwan, and South Korea, have employed a “COVID Zero” approach, with a goal of absolutely minimizing transmission of the virus within their borders.

By contrast, B.C. has employed an ever-changing strategy that aims to avoid overwhelming hospitals until a vaccine arrives, said Andrew Longhurst, a researcher and policy analyst with the Health Sciences Association of B.C. and former senior adviser to the Ministry of Health's Primary and Community Care Research Initiative.

“I think we need to take a more hands-on approach with a clear strategy in mind, or we'll end up with subsequent waves,” he said.

In an article on PolicyNote, Longhurst observes that data from 45 countries show that the economies of Asia-Pacific countries, which have aggressively pursued suppression and elimination, outperform other countries.

Without that clear goal, B.C. has added restrictions as cases rise, only to open up too quickly when cases trend down, said Longhurst.

B.C. recorded more than 2,000 cases of COVID-19 over the weekend along with 35 deaths, according to provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry.

There are more than 9,000 active cases and more than 10,000 people isolating due to possible exposure.

The death toll in the province stands at 527.

Taiwan added two cases on Monday, according to Worldometers. New Zealand added six cases and Australia added 15.

Each of those nations has the advantage of geographical isolation, while B.C. has a shared border with the United States and an uncontrolled border with Alberta.

“We can't replicate exactly what other jurisdictions are doing, but those countries have worked toward a COVID Zero approach, while our approach has been mitigation,” Longhurst argued.

What they also have in common is a clear policy goal around aggressive suppression of the virus, and everything from lockdowns to travel restrictions flow from that.

Melbourne, Australia implemented a 110-day lockdown that knocked back transmission effectively to zero.

“The point of a lockdown is that you do it well, and you do it once, and you don't keep repeating it,” said Longhurst. “My big concern, which others share, is that we're going to keep see-sawing back and forth into what are essentially modified lockdowns without ever really getting control over the virus.”

As tough as the lockdown was on people and businesses, Australian health authorities came out of the lockdown with a robust “test, trace and isolate” system, and a caseload low enough that those systems are able to function effectively.

“We still have interprovincial travel in B.C. with no restrictions around quarantining, so we're continuing to import cases,” he said. “Add to that our community transmission is so widespread that our contact tracing system is being overwhelmed.”

Despite hiring hundreds of contact tracers, Dr. Henry has warned that they're “at the brink” of not being able to keep up with new cases.

“That means that there's a lot more community transmission happening and we don't know the source,” said Longhurst.

Longhurst suggested that legislated paid sick leave and affordable quarantine spaces would be valuable first steps, along with tougher travel restrictions.

Then, following Melbourne's example, B.C. should introduce a “time-limited lockdown” to bring cases down as close to zero as possible. Schools, daycare and essential businesses could remain open, but working from home should be mandated wherever possible.