Why are U.K., EU going the distance on Brexit?

Neither wants to take blame for no deal

Back when he was Brexit Secretary, David Davis often spoke about the EU holding out until the “eleventh hour” to do a deal with the U.K.

Pointing out that the bloc had a history of doing deals at the last moment, he told The Daily Telegraph in February 2019, ahead of the original March 29 deadline: “They will always let negotiations go to the wire.”

Twenty-one months and several missed deadlines later, it seems Brussels is still playing to type. After Boris Johnson's fruitless Wednesday night dinner with Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, we were told both sides had until yesterday (Sunday) to avoid no deal.

It soon became apparent that deadline would also be missed.

Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, declared a “high bar” had been set for negotiations to continue, only for the Prime Minister then to say talks would indeed go on, effectively setting a new deadline of Dec. 31.

With 1,635 days having passed since the U.K. voted to leave the EU, many could be forgiven for wondering whether both sides always intended to wait until the last possible moment.

For if the chances of a deal now stand at 20 per cent, why not walk away and help businesses fully prepare for an exit on WTO terms?

According to one wellplaced source, the stalemate is not just about the negotiation itself but also blame allocation. “This is going to go on until New Year's Eve because the side that says, `Right, that's it, no more negotiations', will be blamed for no deal.”

No one wants to be that person. Emmanuel Macron's main interest in life is to get re-elected, Angela Merkel doesn't want to be the first to wreck the EU, so that's part of the reason for the standoff.”

Both sides also know that even if they agree a deal, they then face the task of having to sell it. For Johnson, this means convincing both party and public that it meets his much-repeated manifesto pledge to give Britain back its sovereignty.

For the EU, it means persuading the EU27 that they haven't conceded too much ground, not least if Britain ends up doing well post-Brexit. The last thing Brussels wants is other member states to be enticed out.

Leaving a deal until the last minute gives critics on both sides less time to disassemble what has been agreed.

Three months after the referendum, the EU thought it had a watertight trade deal with Canada, only for it to be almost kiboshed at the last minute because of objections from the Wallonia region of Belgium.

Another reason for both sides going the distance is to prove they have negotiated in “good faith.”

There are some Brexiteers

IT'S SUDDENLY BEGINNING TO DAWN ON THE EU THAT WE WON'T BACK DOWN.

who believe the government will have stronger grounds to repudiate the withdrawal agreement (beyond the parts singled out by the internal market bill) if no deal is struck. The revised political declaration signed by both sides clearly states that only agreements developed in “good faith” will give effect to the future relationship.

This arguably gives the U.K. grounds to say the EU has acted unreasonably in denying the U.K. a Canada-style deal, not least after Donald Tusk, the EU Council president himself promised “not just a Canada deal, but a Canada plus plus plus deal” in October 2018.

Hence why Johnson offered to go back to the negotiating table. As Sir Iain Duncan Smith said: “The U.K. government wants to be seen to be going the extra mile so it can say to the British public and indeed the world, ` We tried everything; the EU isn't budging'. Our ask is very simple and absolutely right. Theirs is indefensible and the optics are going to be very bad for them if they don't move on this.

“It's suddenly beginning to dawn on the EU that we won't back down.

“Every Prime Minister since Thatcher has caved in but Boris has been very clear from the beginning, Brexit must mean Brexit.”