Dutch populist challenge falls short
THE HAGUE — The Dutch political establishment appeared Wednesday to fend off a challenge from antiMuslim firebrand Geert Wilders in a national election, according to exit polls.
The victory heartened centrist leaders across Europe, who are fearful of populist upsets in their own countries.
The result confirmed Wilders as a powerful voice on immigration in the Netherlands. But it would leave in place Prime Minister Mark Rutte and do little to alter the fundamental dynamic in a country unhappy with the status quo but deeply divided among many political parties.
The vote in the prosperous trading nation was seen as a bellwether for France and Germany, which head to the polls in the coming months and have also been shaken by fierce anti-immigrant sentiment. The British vote to exit the European Union and the election of Donald Trump, a skeptic about NATO and European integration, have cracked the door to a fundamental reordering of the post-Second World War Western order.
But Wilders nosedived in recent weeks after topping opinion polls for most of the past 18 months, as Dutch voters appeared to turn away from an election message that described some Moroccans as “scum” and
called for banning the Qur’an and shuttering mosques.
Wednesday is “an evening where the Netherlands, after Brexit, after the American elections, said no to the wrong kind of populism,” Rutte told a cheering crowd in The Hague. He said he had already spoken to other European leaders to accept their congratulations.
But Wilders vowed to continue his fight.
“Rutte is far away from rid of me!!” Wilders wrote on Twitter shortly after the initial exit polls were released, embracing his role as more of a pest than a governing leader. Despite the disappointing result, he still gained seats, reconfirming his role as a thorn in the side of the nation’s mainstream leaders.
Outside Dutch borders, many leaders offered sighs of relief.
“Netherlands, oh Netherlands, you are the champions,” Peter Altmaier, the chief of staff to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, wrote on Twitter, echoing a Dutch soccer chant.
Taken together, the initial results appeared to show a nation that agreed that it disliked the current political situation — but had immense internal divisions about an alternative direction. With about a third of the vote counted early Thursday, the results were holding roughly steady.
Rutte’s centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy remained the largest party according to the exit poll, but it was on track to lose nearly a quarter of its seats in the parliament, forcing the prime minister to form a new, broader coalition across the political spectrum. His coalition partner, the centre-left Labour Party, was wiped out as a political force, a punishing blow in response to co-operation with a longtime rival that had a sharply different approach to the core issues of working citizens.
Even as Wilders confronted limits to his ballot-box appeal, his agenda-setting power remained evident after many mainstream politicians tacked rightward during the campaign to advocate for stricter limits on immigrants.
“All the politicians of the main parties have been debating his issues, more than they’ve been debating other issues such as climate change,” said Sarah de Lange, a professor of political science at the University of Amsterdam.
Wilders’ Party for Freedom was forecast to build slightly on its current 15 seats in the lower house of parliament, tying it with the centrist Democrats 66 party and the centre-right Christian Democratic Appeal. The centre-left Green-Left party, led by Jesse Klaver, a 30-year-old upstart who embraced Barack Obama-style campaign tactics, also appeared to do well, potentially quadrupling its seats.
“With Brexit and Trump and with the elections in France and Germany on their way, all those journalists we’ve spoken with in the last weeks wanted to know: Will populism break through in the Netherlands?” Klaver said at a jubilant evening rally. “This is the answer we have for Europe. Populism didn’t break through.”
Still, the likely formation of a broad, weak coalition across the political spectrum could give extra ammunition to Wilders even though he will be barred from power. Rutte has repeatedly said he would not work with the peroxide-haired firebrand.
Rutte also significantly toughened his stance on immigrants during the campaign in a bid to capture Wilders’ supporters, telling immigrants in January to “act normal or go away.”
But Wilders’ showing will probably slow the momentum of French anti-immigrant leader Marine Le Pen, who, if she captures her nation’s presidency in May, would try to lead France out of the EU, shattering the bloc in the process.