NAFTA here to stay after Trump’s misstep?

This editorial appeared in the Winnipeg Free Press:

Canada’s trade deal with the United States and Mexico, which was looking like a dead duck two months ago, looks a whole lot stronger and healthier today. U.S. President Donald Trump and the ruling Republicans in Congress proved last week they were unable to repeal and replace the health insurance system enacted by former president Barack Obama. Their prospects of tearing apart the North American Free Trade Agreement are probably no better.

Trump threw his weight behind a health insurance bill prepared by House Speaker Paul Ryan and campaigned hard to persuade the Republican majority in the House to pass it. He failed.

Part of the problem is Republicans seemed united in opposition to Obamacare but they were never united around something to put in its place. Another part of the problem is Trump pays little attention to the details and the mechanics of government. He bellows against Muslims but he cannot draft a travel ban that stands up in court. He bellows against Obamacare but he could not craft a replacement plan that Congress would approve.

It is possible he will learn the art of government as the failures accumulate. But in order to learn leadership, Trump would have to decide he needs to learn. There was no sign of that in his early reactions to the health insurance debacle. He cast blame far and wide. The one person who bore no blame for the shipwreck was the captain. It’s hard to learn from your mistakes if you never made any.

Trump won applause during the election campaign by complaining free trade with Mexico had destroyed American jobs or moved them out of the country. He seemed to want to abrogate the treaty or make large changes to it — he never said what. He would have to figure out changes Canada and Mexico would accept and would do more good than harm in the U.S. economy. He would also have to win congressional support.

With the smell of failure and impotency that now surrounds his administration, his chances don’t look good.

NAFTA, the former dead duck, is flying high.