The Kremlin turns to Europe

This appeared in the Washington Post:

By now it should be clear that the new normal of Russian conduct on the international stage includes tampering with elections in Western democracies to boost candidates the Kremlin believes likely to do its bidding and to harass those who won’t. Having done exactly that in the 2016 U.S. elections, President Vladimir Putin’s intelligence agencies are now directing their subterfuge at Europe, including the continent’s foremost economic powers: Germany and France.

The immediate targets of Russian cyber-meddling are Emmanuel Macron, the front-runner in the final round of France’s presidential election, set for May 7, and think tanks associated with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose governing coalition faces elections this fall. Like Hillary Clinton, whose campaign was similarly in the Kremlin’s crosshairs, neither Macron nor Merkel has been shy about condemning Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine. They have backed economic sanctions against Russia that have infuriated Putin.

The result has been a relentless series of cyberattacks originating in Moscow, in all probability directed by Russian military intelligence.

Moscow’s tactics are designed to favour its preferred candidate in the May 7 run-off: Marine Le Pen, a nationalist who has taken loans from Russian banks, opposed sanctions against Moscow and heaped scorn on the EU. Her policies would drive a wedge among Western democracies — precisely the return on investment Putin is hoping for from his meddling.