Self-driving cars will transform oil industry: think-tank
SAN FRANCISCO — So if you’re skeptical or nervous about the coming age of selfdriving cars, consider this incentive: a $20 Uber or Lyft fare could be slashed to $2.
Better yet, it might even be free if the ride provider is, say, a Starbucks autonomous ridesharing van that’s covering the cost of your 40-cent commute by selling you a pricey latte.
And this isn’t a vision of the future for today’s toddlers, but likely to happen within a decade of the anticipated 2020 rollout of autonomous vehicles.
Those are just some of the provocative predictions in the first report out Thursday from RethinkX, an independent think-tank focusing on technology’s impact on transportation, energy, finance and health care.
According to RethinkX, while self-driving vehicles may still seem like a science fair project to many, the technology soon will become so culturally ubiquitous that it will lead to the abandonment of car ownership, a US$1 trillion boost in disposable income and a “catastrophic” shift for the oil industry and driver economy.
“Mainstream talk about self-driving cars suggests the big transformation could still be decades out, but it’s time to
adjust our thinking,” says Tony Seba, co-author with James Arbib of “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.”
RethinkX is predicting an overnight sensation that will be no less transformative than the Model T’s erasure of the horse and buggy, the printing press’s effect on literacy and one modern tech gadget’s remaking of communication.
“When the iPhone came out in 2007, many wondered who would spend hundreds on something called a smartphone, and now we can’t imagine our lives without them,” says Seba, author of “Solar Trillions and Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation.” “It’s going to be the same with electric AVs. The adoption curve will be super exponential.”
Not that the view ahead is rosy for all. Disruption looms on many fronts, say the report’s authors.
Among those hardest hit will be the millions of Americans who drive for a living, whether they’re ride-hailing drivers or truckers.
Oil companies will also take a big hit. Despite the current administration’s pursuit of pro-oil policies, global demand will peak at 100 million barrels per day in 2020 and drop to 70 million by 2030.
And automakers and related industries — car dealerships, auto parts stores — will suffer or shutter, with car companies in particular likely having to pivot to becoming manufacturers of autonomous electric vehicles and possibly ride-hailing companies as well.
Some automakers are already anticipating such a shift. Ford is not only investing heavily in autonomous car technology but recently bought Chariot, a San Francisco-based ride sharing company. Meanwhile, Travis Kalanick, the CEO of embattled Uber, has long said that his business model hinges on getting rid of the most costly part of the equation: the driver.
“People simply won’t own cars,” says Seba, noting that for many people the automobile represents a five-figure investment that is in use roughly four per cent of its life. “The Ubers and GMs of the world will own the cars, and they’ll be in use constantly which will drive down the cost of each ride to a point where it will be … irresistible to consumers.”