Waterloo Region Record

Can we trump Trump on trade?

-

In the high-stakes game of internatio­nal trade poker going on now between the U.S. and Canada, Donald Trump holds the best cards and the most chips.

So far, however, Justin Trudeau is proving the better card player.

In recent weeks, the American president has laid down the punitive-duties card against Canadian softwood lumber, the card to overhaul the North American Free Trade Agreement, and the card that targets Canada’s dairy, egg and poultry marketing boards.

In response, Canada’s prime minister has neither bluffed nor folded. He has instead countered with reason, evidence, gentle persuasion and a few moves that have upped the ante in defence of Canada.

All that, plus — in contrast to the blustering, bragging president — a poker face.

For months, many of Trudeau’s key cabinet ministers as well as top federal officials have toured America extolling the mutual benefits of trade between the two neighbours.

They’ve highlighte­d the nine million American jobs that depend on trade and investment with Canada.

They’ve pointed out that Canada is the biggest export market for 35 out of 50 American states.

They’ve proved trade between the two countries is virtually balanced, too.

Unfortunat­ely, none of these facts have dissuaded Trump from barging ahead with his myopic, mutually-destructiv­e “America first” protection­ism.

Yet Trudeau’s charm campaign has at least educated politician­s and officials both in Washington and state capitals. This can only prove positive when the task of renegotiat­ing NAFTA begins in August.

One hopeful sign for Canada came when — largely thanks to pressure from Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne — the State of New York recently backed off implementi­ng a “Buy-American” provision for its infrastruc­ture projects. Let’s hope for more of these victories.

But Trump’s trade policies are already causing hardship in Canada — and the biggest threat at the moment is coming from the U.S. duties that are cutting into the bottom line of Canada’s softwood lumber industry. The Conference Board of Canada warns this trade fight could cost 2,200 Canadian jobs.

In response to this threat, Ottawa this week unveiled an $867-million aid package for the beleaguere­d softwood industry.

Trudeau deserves applause for boosting employment insurance support for workers who lose their jobs because of the dispute and offering loan guarantees and assistance to forest industry firms to help them with innovation and marketing.

The prime minister and his government are showing spine, too.

In retaliatio­n for the U.S. lumber duties, he is open to banning the export of thermal coal — much of which comes from the U.S. — from British Columbia for overseas sales.

And this week, Defence Minister Harjitt Sajjan threatened to cancel a multibilli­on-dollar purchase of Boeing fighter planes if the American company doesn’t back off its trade complaint against Canadian aircraft manufactur­er Bombardier.

Such brinkmansh­ip is tricky. Nobody wants a trade war — especially Canada, whose export-dependent economy needs the American market.

The Americans boast the world’s biggest economy and they could hurt us far more than we could hurt them.

But if Trudeau’s measured strategy works, sane American minds could prevail and a trade war can be averted.

Indeed, with a bit of luck, Trudeau might actually trump Trump.

Newspapers in English

Newspapers from Canada