The spectre of political violence in Kenya

This appeared in the Washington Post:

Kenya has been exhibiting some conspicuous signs of dynamism in recent days. Last week it inaugurated a $3.2-billion, 466-kilometre railroad between Nairobi and the port city of Mombasa, the biggest infrastructure project in the country’s 53 years of independence. That followed the groundbreaking on a $220-million complex in the capital that will include what is billed as Africa’s tallest building. Construction is booming elsewhere as the economy continues to grow at a healthy pace of about six per cent. While Kenyans complain about crime and the cost of living, the country is thriving compared with most of its East African neighbours.

Unfortunately, that progress is threatened by a spectre that has haunted Kenya for the past decade: political violence. An election campaign that got underway recently pits incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta against Raila Odinga in an Aug. 8 vote, with each candidate backed by tribal alliances. Odinga has run three previous times and claims, plausibly, that his losses in 2007 and 2013 were due to fraud. The 2007 vote triggered a wave of violence in Nairobi and across the Rift Valley in which more than 1,300 people were killed; a similar tragedy in 2013 was narrowly averted.

This year the warning signs of a violent outcome are abundant. Seven people have already died in incidents linked to primary campaigns.

Whether bloodshed can be avoided this year will depend on whether the loser of what polls show as a neck-and-neck race will be ready to concede defeat. Kenya’s international donors should press the government to hold a fair vote and opposition parties to abide by the result. All sides know from painful experience that Kenya has much to lose if its leaders fail to act responsibly. The sheen of progress that the country showed off recently could be quickly wiped out.