France and Britain: A tale of two countries
It is the best of times (for France), it is the worst of times (for the United Kingdom), it is the age of wisdom (for Emmanuel Macron), it is the age of foolishness (for Theresa May), it is the spring of hope (for the French), it is the winter of despair (for the British). It doesn’t require a great deal of imagination to see how France and Great Britain would be juxtaposed on these contrasts, some 160 years after Charles Dickens first penned this most famous literary introduction.
Put simply, the United Kingdom has become a political mess because of the monumental miscalculations of former prime minister David Cameron who triggered the Brexit referendum a year ago on the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, and Theresa May in calling a snap election which she “couldn’t lose,” because of the ideological vulnerability of Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn. The results of June 8 have put a lie to these calculations.
The minority government circumstance into which May is effectively trapped, depends upon the support of the Ulster-based Democratic Unionist Party, the most antediluvian contingent in parliament.
May has only herself to blame after running a flawed campaign featuring her wooden performance including skipping the leaders’ debate, a platform that threatened seniors’ health care, avoidance of the key Brexit issue, or anything else that reflected a central campaign theme.
This vacuous showing led to a surprisingly high turnout rate among millennials who apparently flocked to the opposition, particularly in London-area seats. The unexpected success of Labour, should probably be seen less as a long term endorsement of the controversial Corbyn, and more a repudiation of May.
Most Conservatives are furious with her, and former Tory cabinet minister George Osborne referred to her as a dead woman walking. Her only real leverage to hang on to her job, is her party’s fear that a new election might be precipitated before she could be replaced. Still, it is difficult to believe that Conservatives would want to enter the next election with May at the helm, and her days are likely numbered.
Of course, the most important issue looming is the Brexit negotiation itself with European Union representatives scheduled to begin in a few days. Theresa May’s stated preference for a “hard Brexit” with minimal concessions by the British, has now been undermined by the election result and May’s precarious position. The Europeans well understand that she is now in no position to make stiff demands, and she might not even be around much longer. With the clock running on a negotiating deadline to end in March 2019, anything could happen, even the possibility that the British exit might be subject to another referendum.
While the UK political position vis-a-vis Europe is dissolving, just the opposite has been happening with the French after 39year-old Emmanuel Macron emerged out of nowhere to challenge right wing populist Marine LePen, without the backing of any established political party. His predecessor as president Francois Hollande had seen his support sink into the single digits, but now France has a renewed role based upon reform of their ossified party system, which appears to have been revolutionized.
In the wake of Britain’s flirtation with Brexit, as well as the challenges of Donald Trump’s “America First” withdrawal from international commitments, European elements led my Macron and Germany’s Angela Merkel are uniting to bring stability to the western democratic world, and staunch the fear of immigrants that has fuelled the wave of right wing populism.
One shouldn’t assume that the suspicion of foreigners is at an end, but France is now capable of playing a constructive role in offering a positive European alternative, that would have seemed impossible just a few months ago.
In fact, Macron provides a model for moderate pragmatism, as opposed to polarized extremism that has increasingly characterized British and American politics of late. It further has been suggested that the rise of Macron, as well as support for Merkel and Mark Rutte in the Netherlands among others, can be attributed to a backlash against Donald Trump.