Policies put Liberals on rebound

Ontario government polling shows improving numbers on controversial electricity file

Critics of Ontario’s premier wondering why her dismal personal approval ratings aren’t prompting her to quit before next year’s election need look no further than government-commissioned polling.

The last nine of months of polling that have landed in Kathleen Wynne’s lap, and were obtained by The Canadian Press through a Freedom of Information request, suggest improving public opinion fortunes for a now somewhat less unpopular Liberal government.

The polling conducted by the Gandalf Group — headed by the man leading the Liberals’ 2018 re-election bid — found large support for the government’s plan for a $15 minimum wage, general support for carbon pricing, if not necessarily the specifics, and even improving assessments of the hydro file, over which the government has been consistently hammered.

McMaster University political science professor Henry Jacek said Wynne sees a path to electoral victory with popular policies, but she is still personally unpopular. An Angus Reid survey in June put Wynne’s approval rating at 15 per cent — up from 12 per cent in March.

“I can see how she sees the path forward in terms of the policies, but I still think there are so many red flags out there,” Jacek said. “When people sour on a leader it’s very hard to bring them back. They could have the best policies in the world.”

A turning point in the polling came in March, which is when the government announced a cut to hydro bills.

“Assessment of the government’s overall performance and assessment of the government’s management of electricity prices have stayed constant from February through March,” reads the March report to the cabinet office. “These are measures that have been consistently eroding over the past several months, so remaining constant is a step in the right direction.”

The worst overall month for the government came in January, with 61 per cent of respondents saying it was on the wrong track. By July, that was down to 49 per cent, versus 43 per cent saying the government was on the right track — a gap that hadn’t been that narrow since July 2016.

January’s numbers also may point to why the government in March announced a further 17 per cent cut to electricity bills. An eight per cent cut had already taken effect on Jan. 1, but still 46 per cent of respondents said what came to mind on electricity was increasing costs.

After March’s hydro announcement, that swung dramatically the other way, with 45 per cent of people citing “government reducing cost.” And since then, the government’s performance rating on electricity prices increased steadily, with 44 per cent of respondents in July calling it excellent or good, up from 34 per cent in March.

Wynne’s most recent major policy, a $15 minimum wage, among other labour reforms, has been very well received, the polling suggests.

In July, 71 per cent of respondents said they supported the policy.