Arctic warming: It’s affecting us, too

Scientist cites evidence southern temperatures, rainfall are being disrupted

An international summary of five year’s worth of research on Arctic climate change concludes the top of the world is getting warmer faster than anyone thought.

And if it all sounds interesting but a little far removed from southern concerns, David Barber has news for you.

“There are very clear linkages there and they’ve been occurring consistently for the last 10, 15 years,” said Barber, one of Canada’s top ice scientists and a prominent contributor to the report.

“Most people don’t understand how bad it is.”

The report completed for the Arctic Council, the group of eight countries that ring the North Pole, was released last week. It represents the work of 90 scientists from around the world and summarizes the most recent research from 2010 to 2016.

“Cumulative global impacts related to Arctic change are expected to be large,” the document said. “Adaptation costs and economic opportunities are estimated in the tens of trillions of U.S. dollars.”

The report concludes the Arctic continues to warm at twice the pace of mid-latitudes and is likely to see warming of up to 5C as early as 2040.

By then, the report says, summer sea ice is likely to be a thing of the past. Glaciers and ice caps will continue to melt and contribute to continually rising seas.

Melting permafrost will affect everything from resource development to freshwater flows to climate feedbacks from the release of stored carbon.

Then there’s this: “There are emerging impacts of Arctic change on mid-latitude weather/climate.” Barber’s already seeing it. Last spring, he was on an Arctic voyage on the Coast Guard’s research icebreaker, the Amundsen, when the trip had to be cancelled because the ship was pressed into weeks of search-and-rescue duty.

Breakdowns in the normal weather patterns in the High Arctic were allowing heavy, dangerous ice to drift further south.

“We expect this to happen more often in the future.”

Barber said at least 15 new academic papers add weight to the theory that the loss of sea ice is causing changes in the upper atmosphere that disrupt southern temperatures and rainfall.

Barber is already advising southern agencies on questions such as how future rainfall patterns might change how much electricity can be generated from hydro dams.

Global air currents are increasingly disrupted. At one point last winter, Barber said, the North Pole was 29 degrees warmer than average. Air from California was being drawn to the top of the world.