Trump and Mueller on collision course
In the political reality show, a.k.a. the Donald Trump presidency, there are two story arcs on a collision course. The first story arc is whether Trump will succeed in carrying out his political agenda, given that one year into his presidency much of it has been stalled.
Trump broods over his underachievement because he intends to run for a second term, and to be re-elected he needs to fulfil his election promises — which include building a Mexican-paid border wall, repealing and replacing Obamacare, imposing an immigrant travel ban, and lowering taxes while reducing the federal debt. Trump knows that big promises create big expectations — and broken promises create big disappointments that lead to electoral losses.
The second story arc is whether special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia in America’s 2016 presidential election will uncover criminal wrongdoing that will incite impeachment proceedings against Trump. Regardless of whether collusion can be proven or not, what distresses Trump more are the probe’s ancillary matters: perjury, obstruction of justice, destruction of evidence, and intimidation of witnesses. While collusion is not a criminal offence, these ancillary offences are, and will lead to prison sentences upon conviction. Trump has the power to fire Mueller and to pardon anyone found guilty of criminal conduct, but he knows that exercising these powers will lead to obstruction of justice charges that can culminate in his own impeachment.
Trump’s critics want Trump impeached because they view him as a dangerous, unpredictable, and unstable president who, if not ousted, will dismantle American democracy. As proof, they point to Trump’s annoyance with the separation of powers under the constitution — as exemplified by his attacks on the judiciary and Congress. If Trump had his way, his detractors say, he would deconstruct the governmental framework of checks and balances, disaffirm the power and independence of the legislative and judicial branches, and make them subservient to the executive branch — his presidency. Trump’s foes are wary of his penchant for firing people who are not loyal to him and for hiring people who will do his bidding.
Trump critics also claim that his vilification of the news media as a propagator of fake news also endangers democracy. A free press protects a free society’s right to independent information and counteracts governmental disinformation. Undermining the press’s credibility eases the way for Trump to blur fact and fabrication, to conceal the truth, to evade accountability, and to mislead and manipulate what people believe. It’s a mindcontrol tactic straight out of a totalitarian playbook.
But Trump is especially dangerous, his critics contend, because he possesses the nuclear codes that enable him to unilaterally launch nuclear strikes. Given his prejudices, bigotry, and temperamental rants, might he transcend his retaliatory tweets against those he considers his enemies and go literally ballistic and nuclear — against Kim Jong Un, for example? In 2017, some members of Congress condemned Trump’s conduct when he ordered missile strikes on Syria without congressional authorization. They saw it as a scary portent of Trump’s unpredictability, desire to wield all governmental power, and aversion to be accountable to Congress.
Trump’s autocratic exercise of power derives from his admiration of strong leaders like Adolf Hitler and Vladimir Putin. Trump’s idolization of these leaders is well known. Trump’s first wife, Ivana Trump, during her divorce from Trump revealed that he kept a book of Adolf Hitler’s speeches by his bed. And Trump’s deference to Putin raises the sinister suspicion that Putin possesses compromising material of a sexual or financial nature on Trump that he can use to manipulate him.
Trump supporters dismiss concerns about Trump’s propensity for despotic leadership as fear-mongering overreactions. But no nation is immune from losing its democracy, and America is no exception say his adversaries who do not find far-fetched the notion that Trump, a non-politician who disdains Washington’s political establishment, may attempt to reshape American democracy to suit his autocratic leadership style.
One lesson drawn from the rise of Hitler in the 1930s is that a tide of populism fuelled by right-wing propaganda, when combined with a national crisis, can bring about a country’s slide from democratic governance into authoritarianism. Trump’s populist electoral win, stoked by his massive rallies and propaganda that lionized him as a restorer of American greatness, appears to follow the same trajectory. All Trump needs to justify a despotic takeover of American government is a grave national or international crisis — a nuclear war with North Korea, perhaps?
Lord Acton’s famous observation about the corruptive nature of power and how absolute power corrupts absolutely is a warning against dangerous politicians who know no bounds in their ambition to achieve and maintain power. The take-away is that the greatest mistake that an electorate can make is to ignore the signs of inordinate ambition, instability, and political waywardness in a leader. Trump has manifested all three.
That’s why Trump critics hope that Mueller’s investigation will result in igniting impeachment proceedings against Trump. So far, some of Trump’s campaign surrogates have been indicted for criminal conduct, but not Trump. But even if Mueller succeeds in indicting Trump himself, Trump’s notorious combativeness and resourcefulness in wriggling out of trouble won’t make his impeachment easy, quick, or certain.
Meanwhile, Trump’s frenetic presidential reality show continues to roll chaotically on, riveting people’s attention with Trump’s capricious behaviour, with his irrepressible tweets, and with Mueller’s probe closing in on him. At some point, the two story arcs will collide — and the outcome will mark a watershed in American democracy.