Spotify to show if investors trust in music’s resurgence

Investors are finally getting a crack at the resurgent music business.

Spotify, owner of the world’s largest paid music service, plans to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange this quarter, passing up a traditional public offering for what’s called a direct listing. The debut will test whether investors are ready to buy into the music industry, which was left for dead just a few years ago.

Record industry sales have increased for three years in a row thanks to the legions of consumers paying to listen on Spotify and Apple Music. Their spending has far outstripped shrinking album sales in retail outlets and online stores like iTunes, allowing the $15.7 billion global business to prosper again after years of decline. Analysts project revenue could more than double over the next decade.

Spotify built the most popular on-demand music service in the world, outflanking the largest technology companies, including Apple. The company has signed up more than 60 million subscribers and is trying to prove a music service can prosper without being a vehicle to sell mobile phones or other products.

“If you look at the leaders in each form of media, music is the last uncaptured sector,” said Rohit Kulkarni, an analyst at SharesPost Inc. “Players 30 times bigger than Spotify took stabs at it, but none has won.”

New-found optimism about the future of the music business has boosted the value of catalogues in recent years. Kobalt Capital raised $600 million to buy music rights in November and promptly agreed to acquire the collection of Songs Music Publishing for about $150 million. Imagem, which holds rights to 250,000 songs including Daft Punk, Pink Floyd and Stravinsky, was sold to Concord Bicycle Music in a deal Billboard valued at $600 million.

Vivendi, the French media company, has weighed a public offering of Universal Music, the world’s largest music company, to tap investor enthusiasm.

For now though, Spotify is the biggest opportunity. The company was valued at $8.5 billion when it raised money in March 2016, and has since been pegged at more than $15 billion.

A direct listing, usually done by much smaller companies, is risky, and Spotify is trying to pull off the biggest one ever. Most would-be stock issuers hire investment bankers to underwrite their shares and go on a road show where they raise money by touting their future to potential investors.

Spotify isn’t trying to raise capital. It’s seeking a listing so existing investors can begin selling their shares. Without the road show, the company and its bankers won’t have much control over where the shares begin trading or as much insight into the thinking of investors.

“There is no example of a successful music-streaming service from a financial standpoint,” said George Howard, co-founder of TuneCore and Music Audience Exchange, and associate professor at the Berklee College of Music.

Spotify believes it is well-known, and investors can also look at limited financial results that have been posted publicly. Yet the company isn’t a sure bet. Music industry growth could slow, and the company can’t predict how many people worldwide will pay for a service.

Spotify lost $601 million in 2016, thanks largely to contracts that require it to pay the majority of its sales to music rights holders.

Spotify has since negotiated new contracts with major music companies that reduce its costs provided it reaches certain performance targets. Those deals have improved its margins, according to Kulkarni, who says the only clear threat to the company is Google’s YouTube, which is itself developing a paid subscription service.

“Spotify is the only reason for hope in the music business,” Kulkarni said.