The Polar Vortex is going home
‘More civilized’ temperatures are on the way — finally
WATERLOO REGION — Hang up the parkas and dust off the umbrellas.
The high Monday could hit zero as the record-breaking streak of frigid weather is over, and there is both snow and rain in the forecast for this week, said David Phillips, Environment Canada’s senior climatologist.
“It looks like it is ending,” said Phillips in a telephone interview from his home in Barrie. “We are going to see something a little more civilized.”
The high Monday could be zero, compared with a high of -17C Saturday. By Thursday it could be 2C and there is rain in forecast.
“Nature is beginning to feel sorry for us,” said Phillips. “It is going to feel tropical Monday and later this week.”
By Thursday the temperature could be 2. Next weekend temperatures will drop again, but only for a couple of days before climbing back up to 4, 5 and 6 degrees.
“In a week you are going to get a melting and a freezing,” said Phillips.
This record-breaking stretch of cold weather started when a mass of abnormallywarm air moved up the western side of North America, and settled over the North Pole. That pushed a huge mass of frigid air known as The Polar Vortex south.
On the first day of winter, Dec. 21, the frigid weather settled in for a long stay.
“We have had 18 days in a row that we call ‘All Freeze Days,’ in other words there has been no melting going on at all,” said Phillips.
When the Polar Vortex shifts south the normal weather patterns no longer apply. It was colder in Southern Ontario than in the arctic and sub-Arctic regions of the far north.
It was -26 in Kitchener Saturday morning when it was -27 at the North Pole. In Tuktoyaktuk it was -22. Winnipeg was -17, Yellowknife -12 and Whitehorse -6.
“You guys were the cold pole,” said Phillips of the weather in this region. “Ontario was in the depths of this frigid blast of Siberian air that was just hanging around like an unwanted house guest, and wouldn’t leave.”
The long period of frigid weather is very unusual for southern Ontario, which normally has active weather from the Great Lakes, warm winds from the south, and cold air from what’s called The Alberta Clipper, he said.
“What has impressed me is the duration of this thing,” said Phillips. “This has gone on much longer than normal, the intensity has been there, but the duration of it is just not like southern Ontario.”
Saturday, Jan. 6, was the coldest day of the winter in this region when the temperature bottomed out at -26.
“For this time of the year that is probably about 13 degrees colder than it should be,” said Phillips. “In the last couple of days it has bottomed back again to temperatures that would be record cold for this time of the year.”
The coldest night was New Year’s Eve when it bottomed out at -28.
“We have already had 12 days colder than the coldest moment of last winter,” said Phillips.
Cold snaps are normal, but they usually come later in the winter and do not last nearly as long as the most recent one that started Dec. 21 and ran to Jan. 7.
“It’s the duration. It’s the intensity,” said Phillips. “And it was early. The dead of winter in Kitchener is typically around Jan. 19, 20, 21.”
The temperatures will increase through Thursday afternoon, and then drop back
down with highs of -8 for the coming weekend. Next week daytime highs will be above freezing for a while.
“The good news is this — first of all we are getting a warm-up, the back of this cold has been broken,” said Phillips. “This is about the meanest that we can often see. We have broken records, no question. Nobody has seen temperatures like this in Southern Ontario.”
The wild swings in weather so far this winter may be the face of climate change, said Phillips.
“We saw a surge of warm air up through Alaska that split the Polar Vortex into blobs, and one blob floated down,” said Phillips. “It is hard to kick it out. It is like a bully. It sits there and it doesn’t move.”
The shrinking of the polar ice cap causes the Jet Stream — a narrow band of high-speed winds that move weather systems around the world — to move south. The frigid of the Polar Vortex is north of the Jet Stream. So when the Jet Stream comes south it brings the frigid air with it.
“So it brings the extremes,” said Phillips. “This could very well be coming out of our tail pipes and smoke stacks, because it is causing our fundamental climate to change.”
The long-term weather models show a warmer than normal winter across southern Canada from here on, he said.
“The Polar Vortex is finally heading home, and heading back up where it belongs, and we just want it to stay there,’ said Phillips.
“It’s quite possible we have seen the worst part of winter. You can’t say that for sure, it’s hard to imagine it being colder than what we have seen,” said Phillips.